Navigating a fractured market...

With the Miami shows behind us and Orlando looming, we have some choices to make as dealers/collectors. Overall, Miami was a nightmare. The big antique show is one of the most expensive and what I saw was really tough to swallow. You had all the big names with some of the most fantastic inventory out there just "curating". Thank God there were some sporatic heavy sales reported, but overall I am sure many who set up did not cover expenses. There is a serious problem within our little realm. The problem is many watchers are scared to enter the market because of the HUGE grey area in pricing. Let me explain:
In this "two tier" market which has evolved you have huge differences in pricing. Forums and auctions say one thing but Ebay says something else. As much as I do not like to use Ebay as a barometer for pricing, it IS helpful when no reserve auctions run and a price (not value) is determined. Think of the buyer checking Ebay for an item and seeing the same item sold at a show or store with a 100% markup. Now you can justify all you like but when a real ebay seller sells an item cheap, it is hard to justify the "price point" mark up. Hard yes, but it is going on regularly and people are freaked out by it, as they should be. With all the prime inventory sitting in Miami, I did not see many interested parties. I mean, not many even asking pricing as they have seen most of this inventory before and know pricing is way out of whack. I understand dealers bought on 'spec' and have lots of 2007/8 inventory which is perfect and also high priced. What do they do, sell at a loss? Tough call, but as this market continues to "deflate" the dollar you get today is better than the half dollar tomorrow.
It seems a majority of dealers are holding firm waiting for that guy who has to have that one item at their price. Problem is there is a severe lack of "end users" and those who are looking can pick and choose from lots of prime stuff. From where I am standing, vintage Rolex is just not hot because of the crazy hype and subsequent burst of the bubble. It is just risky top pay crazy money for a watch that was $30k in 2008, but in 2002 was only $5k. Will pricing roll back that far??? Do you take a chance on a DRSD at $20-25k?? All we have to do it be realistic in our thinking. With disposable income falling and an overstock of "commercial" collectables I say wait.
That said, I am still getting flack from many dealers who feel I am "destroying" the watch market. Lots of threats, though none physical...yet! I do feel bad for many who are buried in stock. I too have hundreds of thousands in parts which are now worth half of what they were worth last year. It's just amazing that I am the poster child for the down market when there are big dealers who are blowing out inventory on Ebay. What about them?

Oh yeah, they are not posting it online where a whole 1700 people have read it in the last 3 months. Why not tell them to stop selling at no reserve and just post starting bids to give the appearance of a strong market.

Markets go up and they go down. Vintage Rolex has cooled off a bit but has always been my bread and butter. The most freightening part of all this is the lack of interest and there is only one way to combat that. What NEEDS to happen is pricing MUST fall so as to generate an interest/buzz again. Without a buzz and some new blood, we will go the way of the bubbleback. If we take our losses and begin to sell at a more attreactive price point, the market will rebound quicker. If we continue to have some dealers holding on and polluting this fragile market with old pricing it will scare off any new interest and the market will continue to suffer.
Sounds like a true Republican way of thinking, huh???