IWJG Report

This show will go down as one of the worst I have ever attended. I cannot remember a more dismal turn out for a "big city' show in a while. Again, there were many of the usual people with the same (now admittedly so) unrealistic pricing on vintage. Here is an example:A known close out dealer who got into vintage last year had a solid 18k 1680 on a strap. As I approached his table and he said everything is for sale, this is not a museum. When I asked how much his exact words were " I paid $19.5k so I will let it go for $15k". Is anyone else laughing? This is the same case all around the room. I cannot remember the last show where I bought a watch. I and one or two other vintage guys were selling but only at blow out prices. I sold a GMT 1675 for $2600 and was glad to be out of it. The real scary thing was no one was buying parts. You all know I am more a parts guy than anything and I always sell bracelets, dials, and other stuff during the show to complete sales for others. NOTHING DOING. If I took in $10k total for the show, it was a lot. There is no profit in that number.Let's do the math:showcase, safe, armored transport and admission was $1200, as I split a showcase with renaissance. Hotel was $800.00 for two nights.My question is how much longer will some of the smaller dealers who have to travel by plane/car continue to attend? We go to shows as part of our business and are able to factor in costs, and thus losses but some of the smaller guys are getting hurt. The show is not a wholesale venue anymore, as the Internet has really but that to rest. Honestly, the bulk of my sales were to people I know who are in the area. We were so bored and disgusted we had to do some business to keep from going home.The one good thing that transpired was I spoke with AQ and OP&Co. as I am putting a huge lot of stuff up for the June auctions in NYC. The market is not getting better anytime soon. There are no really nice fresh pieces on the horizon and with dealers and collectors not asking realistic pricing, much of the buzz generated over the last year is gone. This is the big problem. No one really cares anymore. no one wants to take a chance on buying something and losing half the value in a few months. I have come to the conclusion that the ONLY place to get real money for items is through auction. Think about it, your item is in a room full of qualified buyers with money. This is not Ebay. Yes, there are fees but when you think about it is far more cost effective than waiting around for an end user to come up. I really cannot understand some of these 'high asking price" guys. How would I look if I sold a watch like that gold 1680 to some unsuspecting person knowing it is overpriced by 50%??? What happens if the guy wants to return it or trade it? That is no way to treat a customer. These guys are looking for a "fish".Oh well. I cannot do that.
This is the way it is going and this is why no one is interested in vintage except the die hards. As I have been saying for some time, we will regress back to 2003 pricing by September. This summer will be BRUTAL.
I say if you are not married to it sell it and take your losses, as this stuff is only going down. If you want top dollar consider the auction houses. If there are any questions you can call or emaiol me but that is where I am going. When the new auction books are published, you will all see I am not bullshitting. I have alot of pages reserved! lol

JB