As I write this passage, I am struck by how many will not take what I say to heart, or worse, just "poo-poo" it. We have a little problem in the "secondary watch market",. I have been seeing more and more fakes, renumbers, and straight up E-scams over the last few months. Since December I have been offered 2 18k Subs, one was not really such a pin out (no serial number is a give away", but another was extremely well done with real movement, dial, insert. All the gold was 18k and tested with proper Rolex hallmarks but it was ALL not Rolex. Very hard to catch if you do not know what to look for. These watches are floating around 47th as I write this. Sellers sometimes know, sometimes they do not...or do not care.
The other situation worth mention is the rash of E-scams. I see on Ebay some of the greatest deals, but honestly I know many are scams. Mind you, there are many real sellers who are bailing out of stuff, but I know a few guys reading this who bought $6k-7k daytonas who got boxes with fakes in them.
Let's talk Daytona, as it is a barometer for the market as a whole. Steel Zeniths are holding strong in the $8k price range. They are NOT available under $7500 unless you are lucky. Rolex movement steel daytonas are the same. this is good. red Subs are holding in the $8-9k range without papers in excellent condition. Plastic non quick presidents are also going well in the $3k range for head only and over scrap for the bracelet which puts a complete one at $5k...cheap, but not so cheap!
Plastic common 5512, 1675 and 1680 are the interesting ones lately. nice example 1680 cannot be bought for under $4k, but when you get one it is a tough sell at $4500! same for 1675, hard to buy with a good bracelet under $3k, hard sell over $3500.
Gilt is another interesting call. PERFECT PIECES will sell in and around $10k, but they have to be perfect.
Plactic daytona are out there, but no one is burping thus they are all over $20k, unless you get lucky.
Papered big pieces are strong, but sketchy. papered red subs better be PERFECT to hit $13k. DRSD are another story. papered prime examples are still in the $25-30k price range.
6542 are strange. if no bakalite, they are a $10k-15k watch. with a service bakalite, $25k, original bakalite, over that.
I hate those watches because I cannot wear one! i will beat it up too much after an hour or so!.
IWJG Orlando is going to be interesting. The EU is soft and many US dealers are holding on for dear life waiting for out EU brothers to bail them out. I do not see it happening, but who knows. Asian buyers are still in the mix, but not as aggressive since the EU boys slowed down. hey, they are smart. Without the EU boys prices will weaken as US dealers have "tax time" coming, right around the corner. Modern is hot with sport watches leading the way. green subbies, ceramic GMT are in the $5k range, up or down with or without papers.
All in all it is a good time to buy, and a good time to sell if your prices are right. If they are not right, you will not do business.
I will report when I return from Orlando next week. If anyone wants to attend the show please email me:
coda1210@aol.com
all the best...
JB
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