Acceptance of the times...

Well, after much continual bashing by the "non believers", the major forums (VRF, BJSOnline) have finally accepted there is a market slowdown.
The very frightening reality has yet to hit, but is on the horizon. One of the deals I did not post publicly is a gorgeous 6241 3 color black which traded for under $50k at IWJG. Many will not admit that even the Newmans and other exotics are falling but it is a fact, as I witnessed it. Dealer to dealer, perfect piece for
$48k. Now I am sure there were many in the room and maybe even reading this who will offer $55k-60k now. Or will they?
What is happening is opportunity for collectors and opportunity for creative dealers. As a parts person, I always size up a watch according to the sum of it's parts. The dial and case being the prime indicators. Many watches such as ther 1655 or 1665 DRSD will now bring better money in parts. Think about it. What is the liquid price of a 1655? $10-12k? The case alone is a hard thing to find on the open market and will always fetch pretty close to $10k. DRSD is another one. When a friend called and asked my advise on wether to buy a round case back MK IV, no inside serial I quoted $14 on the buy. He did not listen and wound up breaking even at $16. The prices of yesterday are not the prices of today.
On another note, I currently have a piece on memo with a known dealer for WAY over current book. Nice condition 1655 normal dial which I posted $14 + profit.
There are many buyers out there looking to pick up nice examples, but NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FORMER PRICE STRUCTURE.
Remember the golden rule:
Rare and desirable will always sell.
With so many of these watches out there rare is a tough one to conquer. Over the last 5 years the vintage buzz has gotten worldwide attention, thus bringing many "safe deposit box" pieces to market. As the demand dries up because of overstock, or just plain lack of interest what happens to these watches that were so sought after? They sit in the showcase of some dealer/professional collector/speculator until he is ready to take a loss.
This is what we will see in the coming months. Dealers will MIGHT have to sell at some point, but the guys who bought in as a fad WILL sell, and at lower prices.

The time to buy is coming. Opportunity is a few months away. Bigger pieces, you know the ones they say will NEVER fall, will come to market soon. The hobby cannot withstand such a multi dimensional freefall.