Black Friday on 47th street...

Not much doing. Boring. There are many of the same pieces coming to the booth via different runners, all priced too high. I do think some are beginning to see the correction and making feeble attempts to "reduce" online, but if you check Ebay you will see how low things really are:

Item number: 330287790271 Red Sub with starting bid of $7k, no bidders. But, a Red Sub w/full boat, Item number: 190267224264, sold for over $12k. What does this mean? Let's explore a bit more. A red dial alone, Item number: 250327051787, sold for $1800.00+. Not the best condition but for $1800 it is not too bad. So, what is a red sub really worth? Well, to hear some people say they will pay $20k for a perfect example screams insanity. I think a PERFECT example is still in the $14-16k range. Now I mean unpolished, no issues whatsoever. For now.
My thing about red Subbies is that there are just so many out there. They are really a "commercial" collectible, like a Mickey Mantle autograph. Nice to have but not rare at all. Remember people, not long ago you could buy one for $2-3k. How unrealistic is it that we see those days again?
On another note, I received my monthly "Specht Sheet" and Ken states: "The entire high end watch market is very soft. Early Rolex Daytona Cosmographs have lost, in many cases, $10k in value the past month. Most, if not all, of the collectible vintage Rolex market has been hurt. I can't say if this is temporary, or if we are in for a long decline." Has a nasty ring to it, no? Ken Specht has been in the business longer than many of us. There are just too many sellers, and no buyers. That is the killer. NO BUYERS at any price so those who MUST sell to eat WILL sell at considerable loss. OK, OK, I hear some of you salivating but who really wants to buy a commercial watch which is on the decline? "Oh, it is my grail", so I will buy a red subbie for $7k and watch it go down to 4k in a few months??? I don't know about anyone else but if I buy something I like to maintain it's value. If I bought (and I do have a couple in my new found collection) and the bottom drops I would never be able to LOOK at that crummy worthless watch, let alone wear it!! lol! I already have a damn $24k (my cost) Tudor MC, that some stinking undercoat hawking, air freshener selling pal o' mine told me would hold it's value. Yeah, right.
So don't feel too bad if you bought too high. We all did. Now is the time to get even. I am predicting prices will come all the way down by September 2009. I mean "roll back" to 2002/3 pricing. Big auctions will be where the masses will go to sell their mediocre stuff, and guess what will happen? The market will become even more diluted with crap, separating the real cream but dragging some of the better stuff down, nonetheless. Look at Newmans. There are many "old time newcomers" to the forum markets searching for end users. Big names in the dealer world but here they stand, on the forums trying to find some poor soul to bail out of their overpriced, recently bought "grails". Oh, it will be a corker in Miami in January, if they don't cancel the show for poor turnout. The reality is a pusher newman is really a pretty common watch and will fall like other "commercial" grails. again, it was not long ago these watches were between $20-30k. The Newmans that will hold are the rare references 6240, 6262, and the like. No, they will not be $80k when all the rest are $30k, but I am sure collectors will covet them as they are harder to find...even if they look identical on the wrist. Hmmmmmmmmm...