How the mighty have fallen...

It was only a matter of time before I was going to put this post out there for all to see so here it is:
The common and vintage market is shot.
Though we can sometimes sell a piece here or there for a good price, the general flavor of the market is down, down, down.

Ebay item # 270354503126
ROLEX-DAYTONA-116520-CHRONOGRAPH-SS-MENs-WATCH-NR-MINT

I find it particularly interesting that the ever popular steel Daytona has fallen so hard. Interesting, but not surprising. This is a watch that historically was a 1-2 year waiting list from an AD but now can be has on 47th street for between $9-10k depending on who you go to. The 116520 Rolex movement model is so soft that I am only offering $6-6500 on the buy from the public. dealer to dealer they are trading at $7k, give or take a few for papers and condition. The Zeniths are not basically the same, but for the "patrizzi" or floater, which in steel may or may not bring above $14k w/all the gimmicks.
I can remember a time in 2001 when a steel U/A serial was $6k and I believe we will be back there by summer. One only has to look at ebay and the forums to see what is really happening.
A 16750 w/all the gimmicks traded at $4250.00, or so we are told. I believe that was a great deal. I should have stepped up but I was waiting for $4k. There are only a few of us who are still buying on spec and we have to be careful.
I moved a 1655, full boat for under $14k which I thought was a good price, but sold it to a "pro" who hopefully had a customer waiting for a bit more.
The 5513 is the killer. These are now on the block under $4k so where does a dealer buy in? I say $2500-3k, depending on the dial. haha!!! Remember the "maxi" dial? What a crock. People spent $6k and up (I know because I sold some) for a fad dial...beautiful but nonetheless, a fad. No, it is not a COMEX or Milsub. I love these sellers who post "pre Comex" or some other hook to lure un some poor soul who is not hip to the current market.
The two tier market is still in effect, with major auction houses getting what I believe to be top dollar from buyers who truly trust that venue. Plastic Daytonas are still going off at auction for over $20k but what about the real world? I don't know about anyone reading this but I would be really careful to pull the trigger over $20k unless it was pre sold.
The mighty Big Crown has also softened. While the one on ebay which sold for under $20k was a little rough (wiped serial) it had a gilt service dial. What is that dial worth? It has to go for $3-4k, so what about the other parts? not sounding like a good deal at that price from here but hey, someone wanted it.
Look at the DRSD, the most common, commercial of all the "vintage" family. Gone are the days of $30-40k w/papers. Now under $20 is the place they will sell and without papers in the low teens. What is a good DRSD dial worth? In 2005/6 I regularly sold them for $5-7k, but remember paying $15k for a MK 2 over the summer.
All this is in the past, my faithful readers.
Let's examine the other "commercial classic" the red Sub. I have always thought of this as a boring piece and you know what, it really is. What is a nice dial worth? $3k? so what is a 1680 worth? $3k??? lol! are you getting it? I mean, these watches are all over the place and yes, I hear all of you screaming from UK that condition and provenance matter but, COME ON!!! These are selling on ebay for over $10k and up w/papers, but without I saw some of the nicest ones around in Orlando sitting for $7k, along with the $10k 1655s.
What about the super exotics? A plastic 2 ROC "Texas" edition sold w/papers at auction for over $60k which was low , considering the dial but where would a "real" one go? These "texas" dials wil fetch heavy money even in a down market. I have not seen a 3 CROC lately buy I am sure it would do OK. people with money are spending but only on really nice stuff and there are not many new collectors popping up buying everything in sight with soft money. It is mostly a game of dealer to dealer "smoke and mirrors", with the old "sell it in Munich or on the Internet", heard over and over.
I mean, when a newer mint President will not sell immediately for over $9k on a forum or ebay there is something wrong. when I buy single quick presidents for $4k and have a hard time selling them for $4500-5k something is wrong.
Speaking of the modern stuff look at new steel Subbies and Datejust. If you buy a 116220 for $2500 (list is $5550) you would think $3k is a sure thing, NOT!!! Subbies and SD are also really soft. I am not even going to mention the 'big" watches like my bling GMT and MP's, which are now in the "under "30k" group.
So, anyone want to dispute this? Oh, yeah the stock market was up a couple of days and the recession is coming to an end this year. ARE YOU SERIOUS? Oh right, Obama is going to create 3 million jobs in the next few years. Nice, that will offset the 500k jobs which are lost every month.
The old price structure cannot sustain itself.
The market is slowly moving back to 2002/3 pricing.
It is coming people, but for me it is already here.