Maneuvering a Strange Market

It appears the vintage Rolex market is more complex than many realize. The shows in Florida are done, the March AQ auction is history and we now fall into the "dog days" of Spring. Historically, Spring is usually a good time to buy and sell with tax time pulling many otherwise untouchable pieces out of safe deposit boxes and collections, but there is really not much happening. Time will tell but I feel people are holding on to their watches and selling off other "hard assets" like gold, stock, etc. Watches are usually the last to go so many of us are waiting to scoop up whatever we can from privates to bring to the open market. I have been buying every day but for every great piece (and there have been a few) I have to buy quickset datejusts, pressies and modern sport. Not the worst thing!

One interesting piece that needs to be discussed is the "big January" many dealers mentioned. It has been told to me by reliable sources that many of the big dealers had as good a month of January as they did last year. Hmm? January was the month of the IWJG show (bomb) and Miami Antique (another bomb). All I saw and heard was business was terrible so how do these guys report in February that they had good months? I kind of figured it out. During the IWJG meeting one of the larger online watch dealers spelled it out: He was buying for less, thus margins were higher so there was good profit. Let's break it down: dealers were paying less for product and selling for their usual mark-up (or slight Obama related discount). Sell less, make more per unit = PROFIT!!! OK. in laymans terms, dealers were "ripping" watches and moving them to people who are not as affected by the economy thus making money!!! OK. sounds about right.
There ARE buyers out there, but most of them are dealers with an end user on the hook for a specific piece. From where I am sitting, dealers are getting lean on inventory! The guys with heavy showcases are finding it hard, but not impossible.
During the last few hours of IWJG I spoke with one of the biggest and as I said, he was selling to end users.
The problem with IWJG, WWT and NAWCC shows in general is the sellers still have the mentality that they do not have to be competative because they either will sell on the internet or go to EU/Munich fair. Do you believe I am still hearing that one???
I really have to wonder if guys in Munich have no clue regarding pricing or if they will just pay more. If so, that is great. The internet? Ebay? I see ebay as a place to BUY, not SELL.
Historically, IWJG has been the real heavy "go to" place to find whatever you need. I am new to the organization, joining in 2006. I was an NAWCC person for many years prior since 1997. What is happening in IWJG is just a sign of the times. It is a very expensive show for the smaller dealer. Entry fees and showcases along with airfare and lodging will account for $2k for a smaller set up and $3k for a full set up. How long are these smaller dealers going to pay up? Also, there are shows literally every month so how many times will someone fly to Vegas/NJ/Dallas to hear another dealer forgo a hand to hand deal when they can find an end user "online or at Minuch". See what I mean? In addition, even though WWT and NAWCC have no security, smaller dealers may have to overlook getting robbed in order to find an affordable venue. Funny thing is even at the 'smaller" shows like WWT, NAWCC the same dealers take the same position asking higher than "dealer to dealer" pricing, stating they will get more online or overseas.
Does anyone see a pattern developing here??? There is no "wholesale" market for vintage, or most other stuff for that matter. Everyone wants the last buck on the table and are unwilling to allow another dealer to make reasonable profit.

I asked the readership to participate in a poll last post and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of posting pricing so this is what I will do. Please remember that there are many variables but the prices I post will be what I see online and on the street.
For the record, IWJG sent their January/February mailer and on the front page was this heading "Pricing Alert". There was a list of watches and the new price structure. I will say that anyone who is really serious about buying and selling should join IWJG, for no other reasopn but the receive the regular mailer w/current priceguide. It comes in handy when buying from privates as it is like a "kelly blue book" for watches. It gives you a basis to buy for the right price, and these ARE the correct dealer entry points, regardless of what others say.

It is important that we buy right and also sell right so there is a smooth flow of business. I prefer to sell to dealers as end users are very demanding and I honestly do not have the patience. The regular people I sell to know who they are and are set up to handle the countless photos, questions and general information that really is worth me not being involved in. I am out there buying, and buying right.