As October Winds Down (or up)...

October is usually a strong month in the watch world. Modern dealers are stocking up for the holidays and many times, people are thinking year end bonus and what to do with it. Last October was pitiful, with all that "stock market fallout" stuff and the wild economy. This October is more stable with the auction houses getting much of the big vintage action, meaning heavy pieces.
Most of the stuff I am seeing is smaller under $20k goods which are much easier to move in troubled times. By working on small margin, there is swift action thus good profit. The dealers who are having problems are the guys who are holding on for the last dollar on the table, looking for an end user who may or may not have much knowledge and thus will pay up. These sellers are hoping the market shoots up and are pricing based on these assumptions. In most cases, they will just sit on dead inventory. I personally cannot see the point of holding merch that was bought during the peak of the market with cheap money. I hear over and over "I paid this or that", but ultimately, the CASH is worth more now, even if you are losing a few points-10/20%. It makes no sense to me. With prices very sketchy it seems only dealers are buying. Many end users are not in the game due to the bad US/EU economy. Asia is pumping but it seems it is all dealers. The US end user is not prevalent in this game and therefore all roads lead to overseas buyers. This is key in terms of market price decline. Remember, the US buyer fueled the "watch bull run" of 2006-8. These guys borrowed cheap money from their HELOC and bought stuff be it new cars, new bathrooms or vintage/new watches. With these players out of the game, there is a dynamic missing and thus, prices are softening. regardless, dealers are holding on, keeping prices up thus keeping new players out. The buzz in the USA for new end users is not a good one. The pieces moving are in the $5k range, entry level stuff. This is good, but with everyone knowing about vintage subs, GMTs and the like, no dealer can buy them right enough to make a decent profit. Think about it, with ebay flashing nutty "buy it nows", civilians search and know how much stuff is worth to the last dollar, many times unrealistically, but they have a database.
On 47th there are so many hawks we never see a fresh piece, and when we do the seller has "educated" themselves and there is no/very little profit. I am still buying as it is better to make a tiny profit than none at all, but it takes alot of pieces to make it worthwhile.
The IWJG show will be very telling. With all the hullabaloo after the Vegas show it will be interesting if there is anything to buy. Understand, these sellers are all online, ebayed and Muniched so what is the point of selling to another dealer when their real customer and profit is a FEDEX or flight away? Who knows. I will be there regardless, cash/checkbook in hand ready for the one deal to make a show. There's always ONE!!!
I look forward to seeing everyone in NYC and al the best...