Short overview...

As many know, things have been a bit crazy around NY/NJ. Beginning of a new school for James, my mother falling and fracturing her pelvis last week, and other "stuff" in NYC w/partners. Fact of the matter is we are seeing alot of action in NYC on modern AND vintage. The variable is pricing. If is is crap, it must be priced right, as if it is MINT it must be priced right to sell. A quick look at the VRM will tell what stuff is priced right and what is not. If it sold, it is priced right, or "priced to sell". if it has been relisted over and over, it is not right for THIS MARKET.
The strong IWJG show report was nice to hear, bur we have to take into consideration what sold and at what price point. Did dealers dump and drop their pants? Not likely. Did they get 20k red sub w/papers money? Not likely. I am sure it was somewhere in between. Remember, there are many non US byuers who have strong money vs. the dollar and I am sure this is what accounted for most of the strong purchases.
Not a bad thing, but something to be considered.
is the market on a rebound? I guess that is what dealers would want to have happen and have the buying public believe. Is it happening across the board? Let's discus:
I can only vouch for NYC and 47th street when I say many there are "scared" of vintage. there are many longtime dealers who got the vintage bug and are now holding overpriced items "waiting for the market to rebound".
will it ever be like 2 years ago? Not likely. Why?
The phenomenon which occurred in the vintage market between 2006-8 was in effect "the perfect storm".

remember, for many years EU and Asian buyers have been into these pieces whereas the US buyers were not as present. There was alot of "cheap money" and many new "professionals" out there making $200k annually who caught the bug and dove in. now that these players have left the stadium, or are not as liquid, the demand domestically has declined. In come the EU/Asians who always played and know the game better. They know quality and what will sell in their particular market, as they have been doing it for decades.
The US buyers who bought anything as long as it was vintage rolex, have a problem. They bought stuff which in a strong market would sell in a flash and now cannot give it away. so what do they do? They hold on and hold on, and hold on waiting for the "rebound" but nothing happens with their piece because it is not "perfect" or marketable to the more experienced buyers/collectors.
At this time it is just a waiting game.
NYC sees alot of nice vintage stuff and also alot of the sub-par stuff I spoke about. Does it sell, sure but at drastically reduced prices. It may not be the Phillip Stahl or Jedly type piece, but these watches have value to mainly other dealers who "part them out" in order to make a buck. The steel changes hands and maney goes with it.
Is the market back? I am still not sure but something is happening. Is it good? Yes, for sure it is better than when nothing was selling for any price.

The P & Co auction on the 7th will be interesting as there are only a handful of vintage Rolex. the AQ Hong Konk auction has alot of stuff, but as was discussed before on VRF, many "Purists" are have ing a tough time accepting what they consider to be "authentic".
Sidebar: Though Texas dials are NOT Rolex, they have a value to many on this planet. Are they only "novice" collectors? think not. Those 3 CROC and other "texas" variations have a longtime following, and while they do, auction houses will sell them.
I believe it is an exciting time in the vintage world nonetheless. I have been buying heavy every day. The trick is buying right and selling right. I want to wish all who read this happy autumn and let's "turn and burn"!