Fakes and auctions...

Wow.  Just a little update.

Just discovered a DRSD fake which almost made it to auction.  I did not see one group of watches during my inspection and BAM, sure enough, here is a fake.  Crazy.

This had everything fake but for the movement, dial, hands, case, etc.  Not for anything, the case was not too bad.  These counterfeiters are really getting better and better.

I do not know if this was photographed but if you see a fake in the catalog don't yell at me.  It will obviously not be sold but it is a little frightening.  

I am glad I am doing this.  It is painstaking and stressful, but in the end I want an auction house that people can trust 100%.

This watch supposedly was consigned by a collector overseas.  Whether they knew is anyones guess, but auction houses have a difficult position where they make money selling stuff and with each piece that is rejected, their profit is lowered.  Now can everyone see why there are so many fakes sold?

My new found calling is really a "work in progress".  I can only inspect if I see the piece and I believe I have now seen all the rolex/tudor, but I am going in again to review one more time so when this begins on June 4th there are no questions and people can bid with confidence.

Oh yeah, I will be posting some pics of that "special piece" next week.  There is a whole lot of protocol so I have to keep mum, but I promise it will be worth it.  There are a few really nice pieces including my famous DRSD tropical dial!  Yeah, I am cleaning house and will start over this summer.  I actually bought a few pieces including a blue MC, 16520 S serial B & P, Tudor Sub, 5513 maxi. 

Well, gotta wait for FEDEX then get on my horse.  The damn pool heater is not working and I have a bunch of people coming over the weekend so I am stressed.  

Never a dull moment at the "ponderosa"...

JB

Fun, Fun, Fun...

For everyone who has not heard I am going to be inspecting all the Rolex watches going up for sale at Patrizzi & C0. Yup, little old me and some of the biggest guns in the world of high end watches. Nope, I am not crazy. No, I don't have a political death wish. I am just looking to align myself with a strong auction house that will be HONEST when selling their goods. I can help them as I handle alot of collectible watches and being that I am on 47th street, I also know all the tricks when it comes to fakes.
Simple formula, isn't it? For some time I have been telling all who will listen that the only way to really get the highest price for your stuff is to sell at auction. The only problem with that was many of the other auction houses are really not too sharp when it comes to watches, ESPECIALLY vintage Rolex. I am not saying they sell bad or problematic stuff intentionally, it is just that they do not have the proper staff who really know the ins and outs of vintage Rolex. You have to admit, vintage Rolex is not like vintage Patek!!! There are no "archives" to refer to. The only archives are the old photos in my old hard drive and the 4 -5 active brain cells in my head! lol!!
Seriously, having seen the way AQ has really stepped it up (as I reported a while back) with a quality check list, it is only natural the other houses follow suit. Patrizzi & Co. took it to another level as they asked me to personally assist by letting them utilize my main watchmaker (Rolex certified/trained master watchmaker, 2nd generation) and also allow me to personally inspect all Rolex BEFORE they are sold.
Pretty cool, huh? I mean, you all know me and know I will not allow any fake or questionable crap to be sold to some poor unsuspecting person.
No way, no how. In my findings today there was not much except one really special piece, which I discovered quite innocently. You might ask, what will Buckley spot that the great OP & Co. cannot? Anyone who asks that has never seen the inner workings of a big auction house during a watch sale preparation. It is the same way I would miss something obvious because there is so much else going on. Well, my "fresh" eyes picked up on something really special. It will be described properly and hopefully sell for BIG money to some really lucky person. Nah, I am not going to say which piece yet. I will wait until I'm finished with the rest of the catalogue, but this was A MONSTER FIND. What can it be?
Soon my faithful readers, soon.
In any event, I am really proud to be associated with Patrizzi & Co. I believe the only other "real" watch auction house is Antiquorum, which has done really well having sold another (yes, another) MILLION DOLLAR Patek. Can you believe that? Well done and hats off to AQ and it's chairman BM. I can only hope that P & Co will be the one to sell the first million dollar Rolex!Well, that is it for now. Please understand that my new found calling with P & Co. does not mean I am not doing my usual "thang-thang" at 37 west, it just means call me or the store/office/cell frst if you want to make sure I can be there to greet you.
I am looking forward to June and all the fun it will bring...JB

IWJG Report

This show will go down as one of the worst I have ever attended. I cannot remember a more dismal turn out for a "big city' show in a while. Again, there were many of the usual people with the same (now admittedly so) unrealistic pricing on vintage. Here is an example:A known close out dealer who got into vintage last year had a solid 18k 1680 on a strap. As I approached his table and he said everything is for sale, this is not a museum. When I asked how much his exact words were " I paid $19.5k so I will let it go for $15k". Is anyone else laughing? This is the same case all around the room. I cannot remember the last show where I bought a watch. I and one or two other vintage guys were selling but only at blow out prices. I sold a GMT 1675 for $2600 and was glad to be out of it. The real scary thing was no one was buying parts. You all know I am more a parts guy than anything and I always sell bracelets, dials, and other stuff during the show to complete sales for others. NOTHING DOING. If I took in $10k total for the show, it was a lot. There is no profit in that number.Let's do the math:showcase, safe, armored transport and admission was $1200, as I split a showcase with renaissance. Hotel was $800.00 for two nights.My question is how much longer will some of the smaller dealers who have to travel by plane/car continue to attend? We go to shows as part of our business and are able to factor in costs, and thus losses but some of the smaller guys are getting hurt. The show is not a wholesale venue anymore, as the Internet has really but that to rest. Honestly, the bulk of my sales were to people I know who are in the area. We were so bored and disgusted we had to do some business to keep from going home.The one good thing that transpired was I spoke with AQ and OP&Co. as I am putting a huge lot of stuff up for the June auctions in NYC. The market is not getting better anytime soon. There are no really nice fresh pieces on the horizon and with dealers and collectors not asking realistic pricing, much of the buzz generated over the last year is gone. This is the big problem. No one really cares anymore. no one wants to take a chance on buying something and losing half the value in a few months. I have come to the conclusion that the ONLY place to get real money for items is through auction. Think about it, your item is in a room full of qualified buyers with money. This is not Ebay. Yes, there are fees but when you think about it is far more cost effective than waiting around for an end user to come up. I really cannot understand some of these 'high asking price" guys. How would I look if I sold a watch like that gold 1680 to some unsuspecting person knowing it is overpriced by 50%??? What happens if the guy wants to return it or trade it? That is no way to treat a customer. These guys are looking for a "fish".Oh well. I cannot do that.
This is the way it is going and this is why no one is interested in vintage except the die hards. As I have been saying for some time, we will regress back to 2003 pricing by September. This summer will be BRUTAL.
I say if you are not married to it sell it and take your losses, as this stuff is only going down. If you want top dollar consider the auction houses. If there are any questions you can call or emaiol me but that is where I am going. When the new auction books are published, you will all see I am not bullshitting. I have alot of pages reserved! lol

JB

Getting prepared...

I am unpacking from Spring vacation and re-packing for IWJG this Tuesday and Wednesday. I am going to keep this one short and sweet. I am seeing a real decline in action for common stock, on the buy and sell. I made an offer on a piece over a month ago and the seller is still holding on saying prices will come back up soon. The piece was a 5513 at $3k w/a refinished dial. Are people mad???? The hobby is going into very dangerous waters with the Summer approaching. I really think the only action worth getting involved in will be the big auction world. many newcomers are not getting a fair representation of pricing as many people just plain overvalue their stuff and scare off any potential buyer, and thus people lose interest. This is the worst case scenerio. Does anyone remember the "bubbleback" craze of the mid-late 90's?? I am not saying sport will die out like they did but it is the same kind of mess. There are not many players in the game and those who want to get in are not enticed by any good deals. I am primarily selling to dealers who in turn sell to other dealers. Not many end users. The public is selling but with moders and most vintage, you cannot buy it cheap enough to make a profit.
I will be in NYC as of later today and anyoine who wants complimentary admission to IWJG can call or email me.
732 492 6452 cell
info@tuscanyrose.com

I really hope I am wrong but reports from Hong Kong are the worst in recent memory. I am hearing many of the mid level players are not even coming to NYC, waiting instead for Vegas next month.

My NYC report will come Thursday. Sit tight...

AQ auction

I am looking over the AQ 3-29/29 results and must say I am pleasantly surprised. Well I should not say surprised. AQ has consistently brought in more money for vintage that one can imagine. I believe the "two tier" scenario is alive and well. It just seems that when you get an auction house behind a watch or group of watches, people will pay, and pay well. Look at the Patrizzi Daytona, lot 100 which sold for $20k. These consistently bring in strong money via auction. Though I am not a big fan of these, this one looked beautiful.
The auction houses are bringing top dollar for good pieces. AQ is known the world over for putting together some of the most beautiful catalogs for many years and even with the "change of power" they continue to lead the charge. I have saved these catalogues for years and use them as a reference guide. I attend every AQ event in NYC and have to say there is always a buzz, no matter what the market is doing. True, prices are down a bit across the board from last year, but rare and desirable stuff is holding pretty well. I think we as collectors and dealers need to take notice of the good hammer prices we are seeing in this very down market. Auction houses are open to anyone bringing items in and are quite fair when it comes to fees. I know personally, I am going to sort through some of my watches and pick ones I believe will do well. It makes total sense. You bring these watches to a forum where people who are interested will assess them and possibly buy. I know people will comment on how all the auction houses let "suspect" watches slip by and sell, but it is the buyers responsibility to thoroughly inspect a watch before buying. I know AQ now has some kind of "condition sheet" which is very helpful, but one must personally handle and if possible open the watch and inspect closely. For those who are not familiar with auctions, this is available to anyone prior to the auction during the viewing. All auction houses allow for inspection and I suggest you take advantage of it if you are serious about a watch.
P & Co. did extremely well with the Blei collection. I was at the preview and there were some really nice pieces though DB was not too thrilled when I pointed out his 6538 has a 5512 dial in it! Hey, that's my job, right? Some of those Presidents were awesome. I found a nice enamel dial in my box the other day and need an 1803 to put it in! I think P & Co. is getting it together after their disappointing first auction. They did close to $4 million this time around and with OP at the helm will give AQ a run for their money. I still believe AQ is way out in front but the competition is good for everyone. P & Co. will make up ground very quickly with another strong sale.
I am wrapping things up over the next 10 days in anticipation for a little r & r over spring break.
The IWJG show is looming next month and after hearing how bad Vegas was I am not sure how it will go. It was reported that Vegas was a disaster. NYC April is usually a great show and being that it is my home base I am bringing everything and hioping for the best.
I do not think we are seeing the bottoming out I once thought was going to happen but this summer is looming large for dealers/collectors and April may be the show where people dump to avoid the prospect of a slow summer heading into a "bottom" in the fall. For real people, summer is always a slow time and with the "public market" the way it is common collectors may be holding on.
The auction houses will be the salvation for many with good pieces who are looking to sell. The public should be aware this is an option.

How the mighty have fallen...

It was only a matter of time before I was going to put this post out there for all to see so here it is:
The common and vintage market is shot.
Though we can sometimes sell a piece here or there for a good price, the general flavor of the market is down, down, down.

Ebay item # 270354503126
ROLEX-DAYTONA-116520-CHRONOGRAPH-SS-MENs-WATCH-NR-MINT

I find it particularly interesting that the ever popular steel Daytona has fallen so hard. Interesting, but not surprising. This is a watch that historically was a 1-2 year waiting list from an AD but now can be has on 47th street for between $9-10k depending on who you go to. The 116520 Rolex movement model is so soft that I am only offering $6-6500 on the buy from the public. dealer to dealer they are trading at $7k, give or take a few for papers and condition. The Zeniths are not basically the same, but for the "patrizzi" or floater, which in steel may or may not bring above $14k w/all the gimmicks.
I can remember a time in 2001 when a steel U/A serial was $6k and I believe we will be back there by summer. One only has to look at ebay and the forums to see what is really happening.
A 16750 w/all the gimmicks traded at $4250.00, or so we are told. I believe that was a great deal. I should have stepped up but I was waiting for $4k. There are only a few of us who are still buying on spec and we have to be careful.
I moved a 1655, full boat for under $14k which I thought was a good price, but sold it to a "pro" who hopefully had a customer waiting for a bit more.
The 5513 is the killer. These are now on the block under $4k so where does a dealer buy in? I say $2500-3k, depending on the dial. haha!!! Remember the "maxi" dial? What a crock. People spent $6k and up (I know because I sold some) for a fad dial...beautiful but nonetheless, a fad. No, it is not a COMEX or Milsub. I love these sellers who post "pre Comex" or some other hook to lure un some poor soul who is not hip to the current market.
The two tier market is still in effect, with major auction houses getting what I believe to be top dollar from buyers who truly trust that venue. Plastic Daytonas are still going off at auction for over $20k but what about the real world? I don't know about anyone reading this but I would be really careful to pull the trigger over $20k unless it was pre sold.
The mighty Big Crown has also softened. While the one on ebay which sold for under $20k was a little rough (wiped serial) it had a gilt service dial. What is that dial worth? It has to go for $3-4k, so what about the other parts? not sounding like a good deal at that price from here but hey, someone wanted it.
Look at the DRSD, the most common, commercial of all the "vintage" family. Gone are the days of $30-40k w/papers. Now under $20 is the place they will sell and without papers in the low teens. What is a good DRSD dial worth? In 2005/6 I regularly sold them for $5-7k, but remember paying $15k for a MK 2 over the summer.
All this is in the past, my faithful readers.
Let's examine the other "commercial classic" the red Sub. I have always thought of this as a boring piece and you know what, it really is. What is a nice dial worth? $3k? so what is a 1680 worth? $3k??? lol! are you getting it? I mean, these watches are all over the place and yes, I hear all of you screaming from UK that condition and provenance matter but, COME ON!!! These are selling on ebay for over $10k and up w/papers, but without I saw some of the nicest ones around in Orlando sitting for $7k, along with the $10k 1655s.
What about the super exotics? A plastic 2 ROC "Texas" edition sold w/papers at auction for over $60k which was low , considering the dial but where would a "real" one go? These "texas" dials wil fetch heavy money even in a down market. I have not seen a 3 CROC lately buy I am sure it would do OK. people with money are spending but only on really nice stuff and there are not many new collectors popping up buying everything in sight with soft money. It is mostly a game of dealer to dealer "smoke and mirrors", with the old "sell it in Munich or on the Internet", heard over and over.
I mean, when a newer mint President will not sell immediately for over $9k on a forum or ebay there is something wrong. when I buy single quick presidents for $4k and have a hard time selling them for $4500-5k something is wrong.
Speaking of the modern stuff look at new steel Subbies and Datejust. If you buy a 116220 for $2500 (list is $5550) you would think $3k is a sure thing, NOT!!! Subbies and SD are also really soft. I am not even going to mention the 'big" watches like my bling GMT and MP's, which are now in the "under "30k" group.
So, anyone want to dispute this? Oh, yeah the stock market was up a couple of days and the recession is coming to an end this year. ARE YOU SERIOUS? Oh right, Obama is going to create 3 million jobs in the next few years. Nice, that will offset the 500k jobs which are lost every month.
The old price structure cannot sustain itself.
The market is slowly moving back to 2002/3 pricing.
It is coming people, but for me it is already here.

Maneuvering a Strange Market

It appears the vintage Rolex market is more complex than many realize. The shows in Florida are done, the March AQ auction is history and we now fall into the "dog days" of Spring. Historically, Spring is usually a good time to buy and sell with tax time pulling many otherwise untouchable pieces out of safe deposit boxes and collections, but there is really not much happening. Time will tell but I feel people are holding on to their watches and selling off other "hard assets" like gold, stock, etc. Watches are usually the last to go so many of us are waiting to scoop up whatever we can from privates to bring to the open market. I have been buying every day but for every great piece (and there have been a few) I have to buy quickset datejusts, pressies and modern sport. Not the worst thing!

One interesting piece that needs to be discussed is the "big January" many dealers mentioned. It has been told to me by reliable sources that many of the big dealers had as good a month of January as they did last year. Hmm? January was the month of the IWJG show (bomb) and Miami Antique (another bomb). All I saw and heard was business was terrible so how do these guys report in February that they had good months? I kind of figured it out. During the IWJG meeting one of the larger online watch dealers spelled it out: He was buying for less, thus margins were higher so there was good profit. Let's break it down: dealers were paying less for product and selling for their usual mark-up (or slight Obama related discount). Sell less, make more per unit = PROFIT!!! OK. in laymans terms, dealers were "ripping" watches and moving them to people who are not as affected by the economy thus making money!!! OK. sounds about right.
There ARE buyers out there, but most of them are dealers with an end user on the hook for a specific piece. From where I am sitting, dealers are getting lean on inventory! The guys with heavy showcases are finding it hard, but not impossible.
During the last few hours of IWJG I spoke with one of the biggest and as I said, he was selling to end users.
The problem with IWJG, WWT and NAWCC shows in general is the sellers still have the mentality that they do not have to be competative because they either will sell on the internet or go to EU/Munich fair. Do you believe I am still hearing that one???
I really have to wonder if guys in Munich have no clue regarding pricing or if they will just pay more. If so, that is great. The internet? Ebay? I see ebay as a place to BUY, not SELL.
Historically, IWJG has been the real heavy "go to" place to find whatever you need. I am new to the organization, joining in 2006. I was an NAWCC person for many years prior since 1997. What is happening in IWJG is just a sign of the times. It is a very expensive show for the smaller dealer. Entry fees and showcases along with airfare and lodging will account for $2k for a smaller set up and $3k for a full set up. How long are these smaller dealers going to pay up? Also, there are shows literally every month so how many times will someone fly to Vegas/NJ/Dallas to hear another dealer forgo a hand to hand deal when they can find an end user "online or at Minuch". See what I mean? In addition, even though WWT and NAWCC have no security, smaller dealers may have to overlook getting robbed in order to find an affordable venue. Funny thing is even at the 'smaller" shows like WWT, NAWCC the same dealers take the same position asking higher than "dealer to dealer" pricing, stating they will get more online or overseas.
Does anyone see a pattern developing here??? There is no "wholesale" market for vintage, or most other stuff for that matter. Everyone wants the last buck on the table and are unwilling to allow another dealer to make reasonable profit.

I asked the readership to participate in a poll last post and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of posting pricing so this is what I will do. Please remember that there are many variables but the prices I post will be what I see online and on the street.
For the record, IWJG sent their January/February mailer and on the front page was this heading "Pricing Alert". There was a list of watches and the new price structure. I will say that anyone who is really serious about buying and selling should join IWJG, for no other reasopn but the receive the regular mailer w/current priceguide. It comes in handy when buying from privates as it is like a "kelly blue book" for watches. It gives you a basis to buy for the right price, and these ARE the correct dealer entry points, regardless of what others say.

It is important that we buy right and also sell right so there is a smooth flow of business. I prefer to sell to dealers as end users are very demanding and I honestly do not have the patience. The regular people I sell to know who they are and are set up to handle the countless photos, questions and general information that really is worth me not being involved in. I am out there buying, and buying right.