AQ auction

I am looking over the AQ 3-29/29 results and must say I am pleasantly surprised. Well I should not say surprised. AQ has consistently brought in more money for vintage that one can imagine. I believe the "two tier" scenario is alive and well. It just seems that when you get an auction house behind a watch or group of watches, people will pay, and pay well. Look at the Patrizzi Daytona, lot 100 which sold for $20k. These consistently bring in strong money via auction. Though I am not a big fan of these, this one looked beautiful.
The auction houses are bringing top dollar for good pieces. AQ is known the world over for putting together some of the most beautiful catalogs for many years and even with the "change of power" they continue to lead the charge. I have saved these catalogues for years and use them as a reference guide. I attend every AQ event in NYC and have to say there is always a buzz, no matter what the market is doing. True, prices are down a bit across the board from last year, but rare and desirable stuff is holding pretty well. I think we as collectors and dealers need to take notice of the good hammer prices we are seeing in this very down market. Auction houses are open to anyone bringing items in and are quite fair when it comes to fees. I know personally, I am going to sort through some of my watches and pick ones I believe will do well. It makes total sense. You bring these watches to a forum where people who are interested will assess them and possibly buy. I know people will comment on how all the auction houses let "suspect" watches slip by and sell, but it is the buyers responsibility to thoroughly inspect a watch before buying. I know AQ now has some kind of "condition sheet" which is very helpful, but one must personally handle and if possible open the watch and inspect closely. For those who are not familiar with auctions, this is available to anyone prior to the auction during the viewing. All auction houses allow for inspection and I suggest you take advantage of it if you are serious about a watch.
P & Co. did extremely well with the Blei collection. I was at the preview and there were some really nice pieces though DB was not too thrilled when I pointed out his 6538 has a 5512 dial in it! Hey, that's my job, right? Some of those Presidents were awesome. I found a nice enamel dial in my box the other day and need an 1803 to put it in! I think P & Co. is getting it together after their disappointing first auction. They did close to $4 million this time around and with OP at the helm will give AQ a run for their money. I still believe AQ is way out in front but the competition is good for everyone. P & Co. will make up ground very quickly with another strong sale.
I am wrapping things up over the next 10 days in anticipation for a little r & r over spring break.
The IWJG show is looming next month and after hearing how bad Vegas was I am not sure how it will go. It was reported that Vegas was a disaster. NYC April is usually a great show and being that it is my home base I am bringing everything and hioping for the best.
I do not think we are seeing the bottoming out I once thought was going to happen but this summer is looming large for dealers/collectors and April may be the show where people dump to avoid the prospect of a slow summer heading into a "bottom" in the fall. For real people, summer is always a slow time and with the "public market" the way it is common collectors may be holding on.
The auction houses will be the salvation for many with good pieces who are looking to sell. The public should be aware this is an option.

How the mighty have fallen...

It was only a matter of time before I was going to put this post out there for all to see so here it is:
The common and vintage market is shot.
Though we can sometimes sell a piece here or there for a good price, the general flavor of the market is down, down, down.

Ebay item # 270354503126
ROLEX-DAYTONA-116520-CHRONOGRAPH-SS-MENs-WATCH-NR-MINT

I find it particularly interesting that the ever popular steel Daytona has fallen so hard. Interesting, but not surprising. This is a watch that historically was a 1-2 year waiting list from an AD but now can be has on 47th street for between $9-10k depending on who you go to. The 116520 Rolex movement model is so soft that I am only offering $6-6500 on the buy from the public. dealer to dealer they are trading at $7k, give or take a few for papers and condition. The Zeniths are not basically the same, but for the "patrizzi" or floater, which in steel may or may not bring above $14k w/all the gimmicks.
I can remember a time in 2001 when a steel U/A serial was $6k and I believe we will be back there by summer. One only has to look at ebay and the forums to see what is really happening.
A 16750 w/all the gimmicks traded at $4250.00, or so we are told. I believe that was a great deal. I should have stepped up but I was waiting for $4k. There are only a few of us who are still buying on spec and we have to be careful.
I moved a 1655, full boat for under $14k which I thought was a good price, but sold it to a "pro" who hopefully had a customer waiting for a bit more.
The 5513 is the killer. These are now on the block under $4k so where does a dealer buy in? I say $2500-3k, depending on the dial. haha!!! Remember the "maxi" dial? What a crock. People spent $6k and up (I know because I sold some) for a fad dial...beautiful but nonetheless, a fad. No, it is not a COMEX or Milsub. I love these sellers who post "pre Comex" or some other hook to lure un some poor soul who is not hip to the current market.
The two tier market is still in effect, with major auction houses getting what I believe to be top dollar from buyers who truly trust that venue. Plastic Daytonas are still going off at auction for over $20k but what about the real world? I don't know about anyone reading this but I would be really careful to pull the trigger over $20k unless it was pre sold.
The mighty Big Crown has also softened. While the one on ebay which sold for under $20k was a little rough (wiped serial) it had a gilt service dial. What is that dial worth? It has to go for $3-4k, so what about the other parts? not sounding like a good deal at that price from here but hey, someone wanted it.
Look at the DRSD, the most common, commercial of all the "vintage" family. Gone are the days of $30-40k w/papers. Now under $20 is the place they will sell and without papers in the low teens. What is a good DRSD dial worth? In 2005/6 I regularly sold them for $5-7k, but remember paying $15k for a MK 2 over the summer.
All this is in the past, my faithful readers.
Let's examine the other "commercial classic" the red Sub. I have always thought of this as a boring piece and you know what, it really is. What is a nice dial worth? $3k? so what is a 1680 worth? $3k??? lol! are you getting it? I mean, these watches are all over the place and yes, I hear all of you screaming from UK that condition and provenance matter but, COME ON!!! These are selling on ebay for over $10k and up w/papers, but without I saw some of the nicest ones around in Orlando sitting for $7k, along with the $10k 1655s.
What about the super exotics? A plastic 2 ROC "Texas" edition sold w/papers at auction for over $60k which was low , considering the dial but where would a "real" one go? These "texas" dials wil fetch heavy money even in a down market. I have not seen a 3 CROC lately buy I am sure it would do OK. people with money are spending but only on really nice stuff and there are not many new collectors popping up buying everything in sight with soft money. It is mostly a game of dealer to dealer "smoke and mirrors", with the old "sell it in Munich or on the Internet", heard over and over.
I mean, when a newer mint President will not sell immediately for over $9k on a forum or ebay there is something wrong. when I buy single quick presidents for $4k and have a hard time selling them for $4500-5k something is wrong.
Speaking of the modern stuff look at new steel Subbies and Datejust. If you buy a 116220 for $2500 (list is $5550) you would think $3k is a sure thing, NOT!!! Subbies and SD are also really soft. I am not even going to mention the 'big" watches like my bling GMT and MP's, which are now in the "under "30k" group.
So, anyone want to dispute this? Oh, yeah the stock market was up a couple of days and the recession is coming to an end this year. ARE YOU SERIOUS? Oh right, Obama is going to create 3 million jobs in the next few years. Nice, that will offset the 500k jobs which are lost every month.
The old price structure cannot sustain itself.
The market is slowly moving back to 2002/3 pricing.
It is coming people, but for me it is already here.

Maneuvering a Strange Market

It appears the vintage Rolex market is more complex than many realize. The shows in Florida are done, the March AQ auction is history and we now fall into the "dog days" of Spring. Historically, Spring is usually a good time to buy and sell with tax time pulling many otherwise untouchable pieces out of safe deposit boxes and collections, but there is really not much happening. Time will tell but I feel people are holding on to their watches and selling off other "hard assets" like gold, stock, etc. Watches are usually the last to go so many of us are waiting to scoop up whatever we can from privates to bring to the open market. I have been buying every day but for every great piece (and there have been a few) I have to buy quickset datejusts, pressies and modern sport. Not the worst thing!

One interesting piece that needs to be discussed is the "big January" many dealers mentioned. It has been told to me by reliable sources that many of the big dealers had as good a month of January as they did last year. Hmm? January was the month of the IWJG show (bomb) and Miami Antique (another bomb). All I saw and heard was business was terrible so how do these guys report in February that they had good months? I kind of figured it out. During the IWJG meeting one of the larger online watch dealers spelled it out: He was buying for less, thus margins were higher so there was good profit. Let's break it down: dealers were paying less for product and selling for their usual mark-up (or slight Obama related discount). Sell less, make more per unit = PROFIT!!! OK. in laymans terms, dealers were "ripping" watches and moving them to people who are not as affected by the economy thus making money!!! OK. sounds about right.
There ARE buyers out there, but most of them are dealers with an end user on the hook for a specific piece. From where I am sitting, dealers are getting lean on inventory! The guys with heavy showcases are finding it hard, but not impossible.
During the last few hours of IWJG I spoke with one of the biggest and as I said, he was selling to end users.
The problem with IWJG, WWT and NAWCC shows in general is the sellers still have the mentality that they do not have to be competative because they either will sell on the internet or go to EU/Munich fair. Do you believe I am still hearing that one???
I really have to wonder if guys in Munich have no clue regarding pricing or if they will just pay more. If so, that is great. The internet? Ebay? I see ebay as a place to BUY, not SELL.
Historically, IWJG has been the real heavy "go to" place to find whatever you need. I am new to the organization, joining in 2006. I was an NAWCC person for many years prior since 1997. What is happening in IWJG is just a sign of the times. It is a very expensive show for the smaller dealer. Entry fees and showcases along with airfare and lodging will account for $2k for a smaller set up and $3k for a full set up. How long are these smaller dealers going to pay up? Also, there are shows literally every month so how many times will someone fly to Vegas/NJ/Dallas to hear another dealer forgo a hand to hand deal when they can find an end user "online or at Minuch". See what I mean? In addition, even though WWT and NAWCC have no security, smaller dealers may have to overlook getting robbed in order to find an affordable venue. Funny thing is even at the 'smaller" shows like WWT, NAWCC the same dealers take the same position asking higher than "dealer to dealer" pricing, stating they will get more online or overseas.
Does anyone see a pattern developing here??? There is no "wholesale" market for vintage, or most other stuff for that matter. Everyone wants the last buck on the table and are unwilling to allow another dealer to make reasonable profit.

I asked the readership to participate in a poll last post and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of posting pricing so this is what I will do. Please remember that there are many variables but the prices I post will be what I see online and on the street.
For the record, IWJG sent their January/February mailer and on the front page was this heading "Pricing Alert". There was a list of watches and the new price structure. I will say that anyone who is really serious about buying and selling should join IWJG, for no other reasopn but the receive the regular mailer w/current priceguide. It comes in handy when buying from privates as it is like a "kelly blue book" for watches. It gives you a basis to buy for the right price, and these ARE the correct dealer entry points, regardless of what others say.

It is important that we buy right and also sell right so there is a smooth flow of business. I prefer to sell to dealers as end users are very demanding and I honestly do not have the patience. The regular people I sell to know who they are and are set up to handle the countless photos, questions and general information that really is worth me not being involved in. I am out there buying, and buying right.

Let's call Orlando "the beginning"...

The Orlando IWJG Show is usually the biggest of the year. This year it's last day overlapped with the WWT Daytona two day event. I arrived Saturday evening to meet my partner and receive our shipment from Brinks, as is policy for any out of town show. As we walked to our set up it was obvious the show was not a sell out, as is usually the case in Orlando. There was a lot of space between aisles and many "dead zones" of open floor space. IMO, another 50-75 tables could have easily been set up. In defense, tables are very expensive and maybe those who were not "setting up" would be there walking the floor. Many others who have done Orlando for longer than I told me they have never seen it so empty.
The first day was the usual madness. I scoured the room for deals, along with many of whom I like to call "the usual suspects". These are the known dealers from all over the USA, VRF contributers and lurkers. After my first few pass I realized many were lowering prices to compensate for the sagging market, but not much was moving. I sold a few watches and many parts in the first 4 hours but come Sunday afternoon, it was clear the buzz was now all about WWT in Daytona, and not IWJG in Orlando. By Monday morning, many booths were packing and going to the "pre show" in the lobby of the WWT Daytona hotel. Monday ended slowly, but the evening would become very important.
In the weeks following the Miami IWJG January show an email was sent to the membership that we would have a "sit down" of all interested to discuss how the current economy is affecting our shows and business.
Sounds juicy already!!!
I arrived a little late to the meeting but saw that many of the "charter members" were sitting on a panel in front of the room. It was a "who's who" of real heavyweights. The first speaker was the owner of a very large pawn operation in the mid west and his words kind of sent a chill through the room. He said if anyone does not want to lower prices on obviously overpriced stuff it WILL NOT SELL, so why are you carrying it back and forth? Interesting huh? The rest of the panel covered stuff like new show locations, upgrading the Internet presence of IWJG and other related technical stuff. One of the major discussions was the absence of Europeans in attendance lately. Over the years the Munich show and other watch fairs all around the world have made it easier to do business in places other than the USA. The current dollar-EU/GBP rate is not helping either!
The last day of IWJG was Tuesday and actually, I grabbed a car and left early for Daytona to see what was going on over there. I arrived at 9 am and the show was in full swing. There were many different dealers and vintage Rolex and other brands were in abundance. Again, the problem was the pricing, as was with IWJG. It was the usual stuff and plenty of it for unrealistic (IMO) money. I bought some inserts, sold a movement and split after a couple of hours. I made it back to Orlando by 1 PM and walked the IWJG floor for the last couple of hours and waited for Brinks to pack and then caught my plane. I received calls from people at Daytona yesterday, which is the last day and nothing changed. people were not willing to sell coining the now common "I paid more for it than you are offering". No shit!
Here is the bottom line:
We all know the economy is in very bad shape and no stimulus plan will get us back to where we were anytime soon, if ever. What I see is dealers are holding on waiting for a "fish". This means someone who dows not know the current price point and is going to pay more for whatever reason. Problem with that is what happens when the "fish" finds out he overpaid, by alot?
Now I will agree there are some really rare and desireable pieces that will command higher prices, but the majority of stuff I see is just everyday common stuff, and plenty of it with more dealers than collectors. I sat with the biggest dealer in the country who pulled out invoices showing very high priced sales of watches which were not really IMO rare nor desireable. It seems dealers have their people who trust them and money is not an issue so where does this leave the vintage dealer?
Here is the big problem: Dealers want the last dollar from an end user. There is really no reason to bring a watch to a show and sell it short for any other reason but they need cash. I am seeing dealers quoting the same "I'll sell it on ebay" and I say be my guest.
The wholesale dealer for vintage is sliding by the wayside. I am the last of the mohegans.
What will happen is just my opinion so please, no death threats:
The economy will sap the hobby of end users faster than shit through a vintage dealer at the end of a bad show, and rumor has it the IWJG hotel ran out of Charmin. I already see many, many common pieces all over shows and on 47th street. No one is buying as many do not see real profit, or guaranteed profit and do not want to risk their very small bankroll.
I believe watch prices will continue to fall. I am selling and buying more parts, but only at fair prices. The dumping has begun, only prices are not stimulating buyers to bite.

My final word will focus on some "suggestions" made to me by "concerned parties". If you noticed in the above there were no prices quoted on anything. I think it is boring but many are very upset that I am "killing" the market by divulging private dealer to dealer information.
What says you? Please vote on top of the page. I will go by the vote, as appearances to the contrary not withstanding, this is still a democracy and freedom of speech is still guaranteed by our constitution. Please vote...

Navigating a fractured market...

With the Miami shows behind us and Orlando looming, we have some choices to make as dealers/collectors. Overall, Miami was a nightmare. The big antique show is one of the most expensive and what I saw was really tough to swallow. You had all the big names with some of the most fantastic inventory out there just "curating". Thank God there were some sporatic heavy sales reported, but overall I am sure many who set up did not cover expenses. There is a serious problem within our little realm. The problem is many watchers are scared to enter the market because of the HUGE grey area in pricing. Let me explain:
In this "two tier" market which has evolved you have huge differences in pricing. Forums and auctions say one thing but Ebay says something else. As much as I do not like to use Ebay as a barometer for pricing, it IS helpful when no reserve auctions run and a price (not value) is determined. Think of the buyer checking Ebay for an item and seeing the same item sold at a show or store with a 100% markup. Now you can justify all you like but when a real ebay seller sells an item cheap, it is hard to justify the "price point" mark up. Hard yes, but it is going on regularly and people are freaked out by it, as they should be. With all the prime inventory sitting in Miami, I did not see many interested parties. I mean, not many even asking pricing as they have seen most of this inventory before and know pricing is way out of whack. I understand dealers bought on 'spec' and have lots of 2007/8 inventory which is perfect and also high priced. What do they do, sell at a loss? Tough call, but as this market continues to "deflate" the dollar you get today is better than the half dollar tomorrow.
It seems a majority of dealers are holding firm waiting for that guy who has to have that one item at their price. Problem is there is a severe lack of "end users" and those who are looking can pick and choose from lots of prime stuff. From where I am standing, vintage Rolex is just not hot because of the crazy hype and subsequent burst of the bubble. It is just risky top pay crazy money for a watch that was $30k in 2008, but in 2002 was only $5k. Will pricing roll back that far??? Do you take a chance on a DRSD at $20-25k?? All we have to do it be realistic in our thinking. With disposable income falling and an overstock of "commercial" collectables I say wait.
That said, I am still getting flack from many dealers who feel I am "destroying" the watch market. Lots of threats, though none physical...yet! I do feel bad for many who are buried in stock. I too have hundreds of thousands in parts which are now worth half of what they were worth last year. It's just amazing that I am the poster child for the down market when there are big dealers who are blowing out inventory on Ebay. What about them?

Oh yeah, they are not posting it online where a whole 1700 people have read it in the last 3 months. Why not tell them to stop selling at no reserve and just post starting bids to give the appearance of a strong market.

Markets go up and they go down. Vintage Rolex has cooled off a bit but has always been my bread and butter. The most freightening part of all this is the lack of interest and there is only one way to combat that. What NEEDS to happen is pricing MUST fall so as to generate an interest/buzz again. Without a buzz and some new blood, we will go the way of the bubbleback. If we take our losses and begin to sell at a more attreactive price point, the market will rebound quicker. If we continue to have some dealers holding on and polluting this fragile market with old pricing it will scare off any new interest and the market will continue to suffer.
Sounds like a true Republican way of thinking, huh???

Went to a little "pa-tay" over the weekend...

The big question was not if I actually switched to vintage for the evening, but which one is "faux"?????

Maybe I should ask that question on my next survey...

Rolex and the year 2009...

Well, the "holiday" season has finally ended, thank God. After one of the strongest openings in 2008, the final quarter was as dismal a quarter since 1st Q 2002. There were many highlights for this dealer, and many others. 2008 was a year of great heights and frantic bottoms. As I have been reporting, the market has dipped. Quite an understatement, huh? While I could easily see the watch market crash coming, I was kind of surprised at the whole global economic plummet. That was the nail in the coffin and the reason we will not see a turnaround in vintage Rolex for some years to come. Think about it: the watch world was so hyped over 2007/8 that many new people jumped in and bought high. Now, many are looking to cash out and there are no buyers. None. On 47th street I am seeing lots of nice stuff but I am not sure what to make of it. What would you say to an A serial Zenith w/black dial and full sticker on the back @ $8k?? I said "no". Is this really happening? are Zeniths going back to 2001 pricing where they would trade between $6-7k? Maybe. UI for one know of a dozen nicer than nice Zeniths and none are selling between $8-10k so I guess I'm going to just sit and watch. Funny thing is the plastic Daytona market is holding for now. Check Ebay #300284498660, 6263 full boat. Not bad at $26k. Had to be an end user because I know I woukld never pay that much, even though it seems to be a right piece. Who knows! Look at the red Sub market and the beating it is taking:
Ebay 160306161025 was a 200/660 and it did not get to $11k. There is also a "buy it now' from a known NJ dealer for under $9k on a 660/200 but no takers. I never had faith in red subs as they are really not rare and kind of a "commercial" collectors piece. I guess others feel the same.
There are lots of them and even the "full boat" perfect peices are stalling.
Speaking of "perfect pieces", I am seeing many high line dealers posting on VRF and Ebay. Now we are talking about the upper crust of dealers looking for someone, ANYONE to buy these pieces they obviously paid too much for over the last year. I have to cringe when I hear some of the "down market non-believers" squawking about condition, provanance and other crap. I don't care how nice some of these pieces are they will NEVER fetch the money asked. Not anytime soon, believe me.
We have to look at this market as an opportunity, but opportunity for what? I am seeing some nice stuff but none of it is worth buying as the market has not bottomed. The bottom of this market will arrive in September of 2009. Many dealers and "professional collectors" will hold out until after tax time but when the annual "summer slow down" hits, it will finish the deal. I am curious to see what the big auction market will do. I have to say, I am appalled at the absolute junk I saw during the last quarter of '08. Nothing fresh. I do hope we see some nice stuff from the big boys, and I implore those affiliated who are reading this to MAKE SURE ITEMS ARE DESCRIBED ACCURATELY.
Yeah, the auction fellows are not big fans of mine these days. I wonder why? ;)
I will say I am pretty sick of all the threats and legal letters. They seem to think no one else is hip to all the fakes and other pure crap they are putting out there. We need to have some accountability and until then, I will post what I see and damn the repercussions. Last year one of the big houses was "tipped off" to a post I made on VRF regarding those damn fake 3 CROC dials. Oops, I guess I should say "in my opinion"! Kind of interesting as I did some research and found out who the "tipster" was. "I know it was you Fredo...you broke my heart". Nah, it really did not break my heart but as a Brooklyn kid we do not take kindly to RATS. Can you believe this crap?
I am not going to get into the $10k reward and how no one has claimed it in over a year but come on!
I have always been a loyal soldier but I guess I have too much time on my hands lately. All these dealers who want me to keep quiet are beginning to annoy me. The market is down and I will talk about it just like I spoke about it when it was on the way up! Remember that boys?
ANYWAY...I really hope collectors begin to buy again. I am moving stuff but it is all modern and not really "collectible pieces. The service division is going really well. I guess people are holding their favorites and want them to work properly. I for one am wearing my new found collection. Yeah, I have a few choice pieces I will not sell cheap so I guess I am now a collector. OK. Wadda'ya gonna do?? They are not worth as much and you don't have to worry about beating them up.