Monday, January 7, 2013
2013 Begins!
As 2012 comes to an end there are still more questions than answers:
How is it that vintage Rolex is holding, while economies all over are not?
Why is modern Rolex holding while economies all over are not?
How are the big auction houses pulling crazy high prices for crazy stuff?
Does anyone see a pattern?
With IWJG Las Vegas going on today and the Miami shows coming at the month, it appears all things Rolex will continue to be in demand.
The Christmas "rush", which is never a part of planet Tuscanyrose's agenda, was surprisingly strong. The month of December is historically not good for selling vintage, but this year, the slow economy allowed for very brisk and right buying, thus, inventory was fast moving and we moved many units before the holiday weekend.
The week betweenChristmas and New Years was predictable, but the shortened week just after was extremely strong. We pretty much sold out of watches, mostly dealer to dealer. There were a few "high wholesale/low retail" sales to local collectors, which is always a plus.
The "buckley dial" craze is begininning to pick up some steam, with local sales to "professional collectors" accounting for some of the nicest pieces going to the nicer buyers! There is a quiet steady buzz building for some of the more interesting Buckley dial/hand models, including one I just acquired which is blue roman w/broad hands. It was always a mystery as to which hands went with this model, as a datejust but recently I purchased this 1803 complete with original hands and it was very exciting.
On to the market. Sales of common plastic sport are brisk. Nice original condition 1675, 1680 and 5513 are leading the field and bringing the right money, $4-5k.
Plastic Daytona, pump and screw are strong, with pricing consistent $18-22k and 24-30k respectively. Remember, papers and all the gimmicks will add $1k-3k depending on completeness. Cream 16550, 666, 16800, 16750, 16760 are not as strong, with most dealers overpricing these models based on investment and their own memory of the "good old days", circa 2008. These transitional models were hot when real collectible stuff was insane. Now, with many collectors favoring real time investments, the market has slowed down and caught up. I personally have never been a believer in anything transitional.
Zenith and 4130 Daytona were a little sluggish over the holiday. For the first time in years, I am getting calls from Rolex AD's looking to sell brand new steel Daytona @ $12k. When I tell them I can sell them for less, they are surprised, as this has not been the case for at least 15 years. Zenith are also a little "moody", with full set pieces in the $11k range. Two tone Daytona of both movements are still the "stepchildren" of the Daytona world, with perfect newer models sitting in the $9-10k range. Gold models are strong, with Zenith in the $14-16k range based on flip or non flip, and 4130 over $18.5k and up to $22k for engraved serial models. Dials are important in all these prices, with black, racing and other exotic bringing a premium.
R and L Zeniths are OK, but not flying off the shelf without porcelain dials.
The Miami IWJG and subsequent Beach Antique Show will be very telling. I am a firm believer in dealer to dealer so we will not be set up at the Beach show, but will walk the floor looking for deals, if there are any to be had.
Happy New Year to all!!
JB
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Forward, or more accurately sideways...
With the election over, and all the cheering masses getting back to looking for their fair share of the American Dream, we move on.
Mose of us will play the game, and not let the game play us. We will play a little more carefully, and remember that real money is made on the buy. With all the wealthy "paying a little more", I am sure we can find nice pieces that will hold value and protect us from the perils of the ever shaky US Dollar and Euro.
This is the time to buy in. Prices are holding across the board and unlike stocks, bonds, 401k, etc., we can be sure our inventories will prosper, as tangible will always outdo intangible. Be ready for another Wall Street burp. It's coming. Gold and silver, yes, I said silver, will come into play, bigtime. It cannot continue as it has been. Debt cannot be rectified by creating more debt. With gas in the $3.00-$4.00 range, how long will it be before people who work, on a fixed income, start feeling more of a pinch at the supermarket?
My own take, I see a real difference just in the time it takes to get from marlboro to my NYC office. In 2007-8 before all this, It was a 2 hour trip, regardless of what time I left in the morning or evening. many times I took a black car just not to hassle with traffic. Over the last four years, my trip has shortened by half, with a max of an hour and 10-15 minutes door to door. High gas ($1.80 in 2008) has led to many having to take a bus or train, provided they have jobs at all!
It is a sad commentary on the direction our government is going. Business, especially small business, is getting squeezed out. The real cost of health insurance, for those of us who actually pay for it, is going to prohibit growth, as will other policies coming into play.
Get ready for it. It's coming sooner rather than later...
JB
Friday, October 19, 2012
NYC Fall 2012, Buckley returns, and he's bringing back up...
As the world continued it's rotation since April, 2011, many things have changed. We are completely finished with the buildout of our new location at 66 west 47th, #23.
Tuscanyrose now occupies the entire back of the extra large showcase with old friends Renaissance Watch Co. Tuscanyrose's relationship with Mike Pollicino (aka Big Mike) and Daniel Pasternak goes back to late 1999-2000, when Renwatch was a hub for many of the Rolex vintage parts that dealers and collectors alike covet today. Renaissance continues to be one of the premier locations for high end new/pre owned modern watches of all brands, specifically Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe and Breitling.
With the ever unstable US dollar, and general global instability, the watch market, especially vintage, is thriving. It seems even though the Asian market is softening, primarily because of Chinese banks freezing assets at will, making it more difficult for traders to buy in their normal "cash in hand" fashion. This is only part of the ever growing ripple effect of the European downturn, which shook the vintage Rolex market last year. In spite of all this, vintage Rolex is thriving, in the USA and especially abroad.
The current sluggish US economy continues to bring forth challenges. As far as our bottom line, the usual process of buying right, and selling with a smaller overall margin is allowing us to move many more units, thus driving our worldwide unit sales higher. In other words, the glory days of 2005-2008 may be gone, but we are evolving and continuing to be successful, despite current financial landscape.
Let's get to numbers: Steel 16520 are holding firm over $8.5k and over $10k papered. Pristine, collectible Patrizzi and A/P serial papered are all over $10k and peak at $13k plus. Floaters are not readily available and fetch premium money, usually $12k for common and over $15k papered. Nice stuff. Gold 16528 are also in the money selling over $15k for unpapered daily wearers, to over $16 for nice full set examples.
Gold Floaters are an additional 10-15%, give or take. 16523 two tone are soft, but always a nice inexpensive alternative in the $6-7k range. Again, add $10% for full set examples.
Steel Subs continue to be hot (surprise, surprise) and are fetching strong money for nice thick cases with clean matte dials. Nice 5513 200-660 minty can fetch over $5k and more with a tight bracelet. 5512 are another grand, depending on age.
Nice 1680 are always a fan favorite and will command $4500-5500 depending on condition and bracelet.
1675 matte common heads are a little soft, but again, thick case, nice insert and clean face can command $4-5k.
The real money is in the gilt models from the early/middle 60's. Non pointy Gilt 5513 with perfect dials can bring between $7-10k, based on particulars. Same period 5512 are even pricier, so add another $1-2k for pristine models. Add pointy guards and numbers can soar, well over $10-15k for either depending on the "gimmicks".
Gilt GMT 1675 need to be period correct with nice dials and small hand, if expected to bring over $7-8k, pointy models can bring significantly more depending on condition and dial.
Plastic Daytona are holding firm with non screw oyster cased models in the high teens to low 20's, but again, a nice full set can add 10-15%. Oyster with screw down pushers are still in the mid $20's and can bring over $30k if complete and minty. 6234/8 models are desirable, but need to have clean original dial or they will fall under $15k, but if pristine, can bring in the $20k range.
1601/3 non quick are the real money here. They can usually be bought in the lower $1000 range and easily sell for $1500+ depending on dial. Not to blow my own horn, but "buckley" dial models with blue face and correct white hands can bring over $3k, as they are extremely hard to find and have a cult following...other than me!!!
Let's get to the ever popular "transitional" models:
16800 is a still kind of a dog, with many dealers pulling the matte dial out of nice examples and selling with regular gloss dial, as a more modern sub for commercial consumption. Blaspheme!!
16660 is holding OK, but not really killing it unless with full set and even then, I would not be in more than $9k.
Cream 16550 is all about the dial, and if it is not a rail, then beware paying too much.
Reds are next, and when we talk red sub, the dial better not have any chips. If it does, prices can drop, but with perfect 660 dial you can pay in the $8k range. Feet first are another story and will bring the money over $10k if perfect. Papers on either can add thousands so make sure you know what you want. DRSD is the same, with anything other than a perfect dial bringing in the $15k range, if lucky. Older stuff is always a gamble, but pricing for Mk 2, and PPDRSD are steady over $20-30k, and in to $50+ for the latter.
Just wanted to let all know I am still breathing, and promise to update more frequently. We have been involved in a large real estate deal that has taken up most of our time, but now it is done and we are back on it.
On another note, I have posted a link for the Mondani book signing, of which we are sponsors. The event will be held at Aaron Faber Gallery and hosted by my good friend Ed Faber. On hand for signing will be Osvaldo Patrizzi, and Georgia Mondani, daughter and marketing director of Mondani Publishing and daughter of Guido Mondani. Jo, James and I will also be on hand.
We look forward to a great time and invite all to join us.
JB
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
The Changing Watch World...
Ok, I am still alive. Good, right? No, we have not been shut down by disgruntled auction houses or "fishermen". We are here, still on the east coast, watching and wondering what the hell is happening. The last year was difficult to say the least.
the move went well and new place is coming along nicely. Business is business, with this year topping last year in sales. Go figure. The holiday season was particularly tough because my closest and oldest friend died unexpectedly in his apartment in our building. That said, the months following have been filled with great saddness. PTSD is a motherfucker.
That said, I will get on to what most are waiting to hear, which is the state of thwe watch market. So, someone tell me what the hell is going on. prices are even more unpredictible than 2009. I have noticed many of what we call "bread and butter" vintage has been hard to move. The EU is strong, HK is buying up everything in site is all we hear, but I see vintage Rolex slowing down as the world markets adjust to the craziness and ripple effect of the US down economy.
Please do not email me and tell me that old line about top condion is selling for big money. It is not always the case. I see many big UK dealers trying to sell milsubs, plastics, etc. for crazy money ($35k for a plastic pump) with no bites.
Oh, they will malign me for "not telling it like it is" but they are all full of shit. The HK show was not the big blow out many thought it would be. We always hear the dealers who go overseas clinging to merch like it was grim death, waiting for the Germans, Italians or Chinese to bail them out. This past year is no exception. My people told me HK was not so great. I do know dealers who sell big PP, AP, etc saying they sold out so who do we believe...or what?
I had an Italian dealer come by on monday who told me vintage Rolex was very slow in EU, especially Italy. It is a slippery slope indeed.
I am noticing steel sapphire Rolex mvt. Daytonas slowing down, with unpapered black or white selling in the $8-9k range. Lots out there. I am also seeing Zeniths unpapered in the same price range.
Plastic Subbies are moving, but have to be nice. 1680 over $5k on bracelets are not selling, as many dealers at IWJG NYC were loaded with them. Gilt 5512/13 are dead unless pristine dial and case. any problems with either will greatly diminish the value, or not sell at all. GMT 1675 heads are in the $3k range, over up to $3500 with matte tritium dials, lower if messed up or luminova.
Big watches are the same. 6538 with service dials are $20-30k, if they are nice. If the gilt dial is perfcect, they will go over $60k. 4 liners are very hard to fiond and over $100k if available. 6542 are the same story, if the OCC dial is perfect, watch without bezel is over $10-12k (provided case is thick), bakalite inserts are also in demand, but @ $15k must be perfect, or at least mint.
The internet is still wreaking havoc as eBay sellers post high prices and privates believe their junk is worth big money. I have bought some nice stuff but it is sold immediately to local dealers who retail it online for profit. the end user is a big pain in the ass and I HATE getting involved with those deals. Modern stuff is selling well at Renaissance, as usual. Very easy to move, no hassles, low maintenance. Tudor MC is another strange seller. Gone are the days of the $12k non home plate. most are under 9k, with some not fetching $8k online for various reasons. Can you hear all the "believers" out there screaming QUALITY, QUALITY!!!???
Go look at the various online marketplaces and you will see plenty of overpriced minty watches not selling.
The usual players are doing the usual things. big west coast dealers are moving specialty stuff for their price to waiting buyers, but it is real specialty stuff.
We are doing our usual moving smaller stuff and parts. NYC is buying all nicer stuff and moving it on. Auctions are doing the usual business witunpredictible pricing and no real consitancy.
Back to fun. I will be updating more regularly as the softball season is upon us and the Rosers look to make another playoff run in October.
JB
the move went well and new place is coming along nicely. Business is business, with this year topping last year in sales. Go figure. The holiday season was particularly tough because my closest and oldest friend died unexpectedly in his apartment in our building. That said, the months following have been filled with great saddness. PTSD is a motherfucker.
That said, I will get on to what most are waiting to hear, which is the state of thwe watch market. So, someone tell me what the hell is going on. prices are even more unpredictible than 2009. I have noticed many of what we call "bread and butter" vintage has been hard to move. The EU is strong, HK is buying up everything in site is all we hear, but I see vintage Rolex slowing down as the world markets adjust to the craziness and ripple effect of the US down economy.
Please do not email me and tell me that old line about top condion is selling for big money. It is not always the case. I see many big UK dealers trying to sell milsubs, plastics, etc. for crazy money ($35k for a plastic pump) with no bites.
Oh, they will malign me for "not telling it like it is" but they are all full of shit. The HK show was not the big blow out many thought it would be. We always hear the dealers who go overseas clinging to merch like it was grim death, waiting for the Germans, Italians or Chinese to bail them out. This past year is no exception. My people told me HK was not so great. I do know dealers who sell big PP, AP, etc saying they sold out so who do we believe...or what?
I had an Italian dealer come by on monday who told me vintage Rolex was very slow in EU, especially Italy. It is a slippery slope indeed.
I am noticing steel sapphire Rolex mvt. Daytonas slowing down, with unpapered black or white selling in the $8-9k range. Lots out there. I am also seeing Zeniths unpapered in the same price range.
Plastic Subbies are moving, but have to be nice. 1680 over $5k on bracelets are not selling, as many dealers at IWJG NYC were loaded with them. Gilt 5512/13 are dead unless pristine dial and case. any problems with either will greatly diminish the value, or not sell at all. GMT 1675 heads are in the $3k range, over up to $3500 with matte tritium dials, lower if messed up or luminova.
Big watches are the same. 6538 with service dials are $20-30k, if they are nice. If the gilt dial is perfcect, they will go over $60k. 4 liners are very hard to fiond and over $100k if available. 6542 are the same story, if the OCC dial is perfect, watch without bezel is over $10-12k (provided case is thick), bakalite inserts are also in demand, but @ $15k must be perfect, or at least mint.
The internet is still wreaking havoc as eBay sellers post high prices and privates believe their junk is worth big money. I have bought some nice stuff but it is sold immediately to local dealers who retail it online for profit. the end user is a big pain in the ass and I HATE getting involved with those deals. Modern stuff is selling well at Renaissance, as usual. Very easy to move, no hassles, low maintenance. Tudor MC is another strange seller. Gone are the days of the $12k non home plate. most are under 9k, with some not fetching $8k online for various reasons. Can you hear all the "believers" out there screaming QUALITY, QUALITY!!!???
Go look at the various online marketplaces and you will see plenty of overpriced minty watches not selling.
The usual players are doing the usual things. big west coast dealers are moving specialty stuff for their price to waiting buyers, but it is real specialty stuff.
We are doing our usual moving smaller stuff and parts. NYC is buying all nicer stuff and moving it on. Auctions are doing the usual business witunpredictible pricing and no real consitancy.
Back to fun. I will be updating more regularly as the softball season is upon us and the Rosers look to make another playoff run in October.
JB
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
I'm back...
Well, I have never really been gone. Just FYI, for those who are not on FB part of the inner circle:
We moved from Manalapan to Marlboro, a few minutes north, so things were a bit hectic. Boxes, bubble, tape...nothing out of the ordinary for me, just on a larger scale. We have been in since mid june and getting acclimated. New home office, different house configuration/layout, all the same stuff from "the ponderosa", just tweaked.
Anyhow...back to the market. Well, tell me something I did not know, or say two years ago? OK, not everything i said came about but let's look at what is happening now.
Vintage? PUH-LEASE! What vintage? A funny thing happened when the internet became entrenched in all our lives, collectors/dealers alike: pricing became one dimensional. Let me explain: Why will a dealer go to a show and sell short when he can find an end user (I will address end users in a bit) online and get what he thinks is a premium? Well, I guess he will bring vintage to shows to let everyone look at it? Hmmm? Well, he certainly will not sell it as you will still hear the ever popular" I am buried in it", or "I cannot sell due to capitol preservation". Come on. I have to say there are many dealers we all know who are so deep into this stuff I cannot imagine how they survive. Well, I guess they survive by selling vintage at the new levels or just sell modern...I guess!
Vintage is not where it was two years ago for many reasons. First off, let me say for a fact that cheap American money drove prices up, as many "new" dealers jumped into vintage (watches/parts) to cash in on the high EU and thriving Asian market. Now those of us who have been doing this for over 10 years always had our foreign buyers, collectors and dealers alike, but when ALL the US dealers discovered the profit margins they all dove in head first. By the time of the AQ Revolution in '08, I was thinning out inventory, as I saw that the market could not sustain itself. Think about it, crap pieces, bad dials, pure JUNK would sell and there was no end in sight. As the US economy stuttered and people had to buy with CASH, not cheap credit money, buyers started looking a little more closely at what they were buying. mind you, US dealers were buying and buying but with no one to dump off on, there was an overstock of crap which no one will buy, at any price. I feel there are no more real end users as most everyone who got in over the last few years became 'dealers" as there was so much money in it, and now they are stuck...or gun shy!!!
Let's talk about gun shy. Well, who is really buying? Most real collectors bought what they wanted either before the market skyrocketed, or during the peak. They have pieces they stole, and others they paid too much for. so what? they are collectors.
The last thing they want to do is buy at the wrong time, as speculation. remember, the last two years really hurt many of those who collect. Guitars, pocket watches, even Patek are all down and collectors are hesitant unless they see a piece they "have to have".
I am seeing buyers again, not asking prices. I just finished the NYC Antique show. Granted, it is not a true 'watch/clock" show but retail was dead for watches. Diamonds, on the other hand were moving, as was jewelry. I feel people are scared after the "vintage watch watch crash" and are not so quick to speculate, unless they really know what they are doing.
I cannot understand how plastic steel daytona are still asking over $20k? I have been saying it for two years but there are just too many crap examples and also too many overpriced mint examples out there for them to continue at that level.
Gold plastic Daytonas, are still coveted, but it takes a special buyer as they are pretty fragile and not usually worn. Those are still in the $40-60k range, depending on condition and are scarce if MINT.
Plastic 1675, 1680, 5513 are not moving well over $4k. These are common pieces and the strange thing is you cannot buy them under $4k and cannot sell for much more. Sapphire daytona are in the same boat, but holding in the $8k range, which is where they should be. 1665 Sea dwellers have taken a big hit, as honestly they are not much more then a 1680 and cannot sustain a $10k price point. $7k should be where they land, and even that is too strong. 1655 Orange hands are also finally coming down to earth with under $10k being the norm, rather than the exception. remember, these were $12-14k only 6-10 months ago. Rare stuff is holding on for dear life, but again, who is buying? where are the real collectors? it used to be "rare and desirable" would be the key, but now you have to factor in low price and then find a buyer. COMEX sapphire are sitting, even with a good tale attached! Gone are the days of the $150k Milsubs.
Let's look at the no crown guard subs: 5508??? better have a gilt dial if over $10k and that dial case and insert better be clean or it will sit over $12k. 6542 GMT are another guessing game. gilt dial, non bakalite over $10k? I think not. Bakalite will still bring over $20k but it better be clean and with a nice dial, unless you have a nut.
Big crown 6538 have been trampled on also. 2 line gilt are under $40k whereas 4 liners are now anyones guess, and well under $100k.
Again, who is buying this stuff at overinflated prices? The only action I have seen is dealer to dealer. I am selling modern Rolex and it is moving well, as long as you buy it right and sell it to another dealer. The end users have gotten hip to pricing via Ebay and online forums and it seems everyone knows what to pay. Sure, you can take a chance on a piece, but be prepared to sit on it if a dealer does not scoop it up in seconds. Over the counter on 47th we are doing very little retail and those who come in know what to pay.
IWJG is tomorrow and I am not expecting any groundbreaking events, just the usual dealer to dealer dancing and prancing.
Hope everyones summer is going well...
JB
We moved from Manalapan to Marlboro, a few minutes north, so things were a bit hectic. Boxes, bubble, tape...nothing out of the ordinary for me, just on a larger scale. We have been in since mid june and getting acclimated. New home office, different house configuration/layout, all the same stuff from "the ponderosa", just tweaked.
Anyhow...back to the market. Well, tell me something I did not know, or say two years ago? OK, not everything i said came about but let's look at what is happening now.
Vintage? PUH-LEASE! What vintage? A funny thing happened when the internet became entrenched in all our lives, collectors/dealers alike: pricing became one dimensional. Let me explain: Why will a dealer go to a show and sell short when he can find an end user (I will address end users in a bit) online and get what he thinks is a premium? Well, I guess he will bring vintage to shows to let everyone look at it? Hmmm? Well, he certainly will not sell it as you will still hear the ever popular" I am buried in it", or "I cannot sell due to capitol preservation". Come on. I have to say there are many dealers we all know who are so deep into this stuff I cannot imagine how they survive. Well, I guess they survive by selling vintage at the new levels or just sell modern...I guess!
Vintage is not where it was two years ago for many reasons. First off, let me say for a fact that cheap American money drove prices up, as many "new" dealers jumped into vintage (watches/parts) to cash in on the high EU and thriving Asian market. Now those of us who have been doing this for over 10 years always had our foreign buyers, collectors and dealers alike, but when ALL the US dealers discovered the profit margins they all dove in head first. By the time of the AQ Revolution in '08, I was thinning out inventory, as I saw that the market could not sustain itself. Think about it, crap pieces, bad dials, pure JUNK would sell and there was no end in sight. As the US economy stuttered and people had to buy with CASH, not cheap credit money, buyers started looking a little more closely at what they were buying. mind you, US dealers were buying and buying but with no one to dump off on, there was an overstock of crap which no one will buy, at any price. I feel there are no more real end users as most everyone who got in over the last few years became 'dealers" as there was so much money in it, and now they are stuck...or gun shy!!!
Let's talk about gun shy. Well, who is really buying? Most real collectors bought what they wanted either before the market skyrocketed, or during the peak. They have pieces they stole, and others they paid too much for. so what? they are collectors.
The last thing they want to do is buy at the wrong time, as speculation. remember, the last two years really hurt many of those who collect. Guitars, pocket watches, even Patek are all down and collectors are hesitant unless they see a piece they "have to have".
I am seeing buyers again, not asking prices. I just finished the NYC Antique show. Granted, it is not a true 'watch/clock" show but retail was dead for watches. Diamonds, on the other hand were moving, as was jewelry. I feel people are scared after the "vintage watch watch crash" and are not so quick to speculate, unless they really know what they are doing.
I cannot understand how plastic steel daytona are still asking over $20k? I have been saying it for two years but there are just too many crap examples and also too many overpriced mint examples out there for them to continue at that level.
Gold plastic Daytonas, are still coveted, but it takes a special buyer as they are pretty fragile and not usually worn. Those are still in the $40-60k range, depending on condition and are scarce if MINT.
Plastic 1675, 1680, 5513 are not moving well over $4k. These are common pieces and the strange thing is you cannot buy them under $4k and cannot sell for much more. Sapphire daytona are in the same boat, but holding in the $8k range, which is where they should be. 1665 Sea dwellers have taken a big hit, as honestly they are not much more then a 1680 and cannot sustain a $10k price point. $7k should be where they land, and even that is too strong. 1655 Orange hands are also finally coming down to earth with under $10k being the norm, rather than the exception. remember, these were $12-14k only 6-10 months ago. Rare stuff is holding on for dear life, but again, who is buying? where are the real collectors? it used to be "rare and desirable" would be the key, but now you have to factor in low price and then find a buyer. COMEX sapphire are sitting, even with a good tale attached! Gone are the days of the $150k Milsubs.
Let's look at the no crown guard subs: 5508??? better have a gilt dial if over $10k and that dial case and insert better be clean or it will sit over $12k. 6542 GMT are another guessing game. gilt dial, non bakalite over $10k? I think not. Bakalite will still bring over $20k but it better be clean and with a nice dial, unless you have a nut.
Big crown 6538 have been trampled on also. 2 line gilt are under $40k whereas 4 liners are now anyones guess, and well under $100k.
Again, who is buying this stuff at overinflated prices? The only action I have seen is dealer to dealer. I am selling modern Rolex and it is moving well, as long as you buy it right and sell it to another dealer. The end users have gotten hip to pricing via Ebay and online forums and it seems everyone knows what to pay. Sure, you can take a chance on a piece, but be prepared to sit on it if a dealer does not scoop it up in seconds. Over the counter on 47th we are doing very little retail and those who come in know what to pay.
IWJG is tomorrow and I am not expecting any groundbreaking events, just the usual dealer to dealer dancing and prancing.
Hope everyones summer is going well...
JB
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Pre NYC IWJG Report
There has been much talk regarding the vintage market on VRF and other forums these days. Many dealers/collectors/professional collectors many have many opinions whether the market is up or down.
Here is what I see:
Many big time collectors with serious pieces get mighty nervous when the talk of a down market comes up. Remember, this is a small community of people with money so many times it really does not matter much in the pocket, but more so with EGO. The majority of these people are heavy into big pieces and quite frankly if they are down a few points to 10-12% it is no big deal, for example: 6241 Newman MINT, where do you find one for under $70-80k? I do not know but as a dealer, I am not going to get involved as the number of "real" buyers is not as it was two years ago thus you will sit on one even if you buy in at $60-65k.
The Newman market overall seems to be holding as again, there are not many really nice examples available right now and anything really exceptional and priced right is scooped up quickly. I will say however I see big money Mil Subs for crazy over $100k just sitting s that market is maybe just a tad sluggish. lol
Funny thing about Milsubs vs. cousin COMEX is the COMEX is really not anything more than a Sub with a cool dial and good story and collectors who love them love them and those who do not understand them stay away. I personally am not a big COMEX fan as it is really not my idea of a big money piece.
The pieces which are really "sketchy" are the mid level stuff and lower end stuff. Let's start at the bottom:
5513, 1675, 5512 are about and at various price points. I have seen heads under $3k and full set over $10k. Who in their right mind would pay $10k for a $3k watch w/a full boat? Well some maniac collectors will but I think those are really risky. It is a common watch with uncommon provenance, so why risk it? Same for all plastic subbies/GMT. way too much is put into paperwork and it is IN NO WAY worth double the price of the watch. It just is not.
Steel daytona are another mind fuck. Zeniths are still commanding over $8k without papers and $10k with papers. NOS examples are over $12k and strangely enough there have been a bunch which have passed through my hands in the last month or so.
6542 are only worth over $20k if they have a bakalite bezel and honestly not worth over $10k unless the dial is PERFECT OCC gilt.
Plastic screw down 6265/3 are holding on for dear life waiting for someone to get sick of looking at them over $20k so they can be priced to sell at $15-18k. Thats all they are worth! Lots out there people!!! Unless they are papered and exceptional be careful.
1655 Orange are another which has taken a hit as there are lots out there. I trade them in the high 9's to low 10's and let the dealers find an end user. Again, lots out there.
16800 are another dog. Matte or gloss I personally feel any matte should be transitioned to a gloss and sold as a newer watch. the parts are worth more outside the watch, LOL! Seriously, how much are they really worth? Just like 666 and cream non rail all this "transitional" shit is a bit soft. Not very sexy to have a sapphire crystal on a "vintage" watch.
1665 are also way overpriced if over $8k or so.
The reality is if you want to sell for "retail" you go to the auction houses, not online or in the forum markets. Just look at all the "REDUCED" listings or reverse auctions...REVERSE AUCTIONS?????? Come on.
The real dog in all this is the Tudor sub market. Look at the price drop. I mean these are really not "quality" pieces with ETA movements and high prices. BE CAREFUL!
The Tudor MC is another "scary" watch as aside from the home plate, I cannot see them over 410-12k all in and realistically in the $8k range.
The market is in correction and while prices have not bottomed out, there are many good deals to be had if you can not get emotional about these things.
IWJG will come and go. Prices will slip into the summer as they always do when "the money" is on holiday. The question is will prices return to where they are now in September? I personally could care less as I am putting my money on modern and bread and butter pieces.
Enjoy Spring, people...
Here is what I see:
Many big time collectors with serious pieces get mighty nervous when the talk of a down market comes up. Remember, this is a small community of people with money so many times it really does not matter much in the pocket, but more so with EGO. The majority of these people are heavy into big pieces and quite frankly if they are down a few points to 10-12% it is no big deal, for example: 6241 Newman MINT, where do you find one for under $70-80k? I do not know but as a dealer, I am not going to get involved as the number of "real" buyers is not as it was two years ago thus you will sit on one even if you buy in at $60-65k.
The Newman market overall seems to be holding as again, there are not many really nice examples available right now and anything really exceptional and priced right is scooped up quickly. I will say however I see big money Mil Subs for crazy over $100k just sitting s that market is maybe just a tad sluggish. lol
Funny thing about Milsubs vs. cousin COMEX is the COMEX is really not anything more than a Sub with a cool dial and good story and collectors who love them love them and those who do not understand them stay away. I personally am not a big COMEX fan as it is really not my idea of a big money piece.
The pieces which are really "sketchy" are the mid level stuff and lower end stuff. Let's start at the bottom:
5513, 1675, 5512 are about and at various price points. I have seen heads under $3k and full set over $10k. Who in their right mind would pay $10k for a $3k watch w/a full boat? Well some maniac collectors will but I think those are really risky. It is a common watch with uncommon provenance, so why risk it? Same for all plastic subbies/GMT. way too much is put into paperwork and it is IN NO WAY worth double the price of the watch. It just is not.
Steel daytona are another mind fuck. Zeniths are still commanding over $8k without papers and $10k with papers. NOS examples are over $12k and strangely enough there have been a bunch which have passed through my hands in the last month or so.
6542 are only worth over $20k if they have a bakalite bezel and honestly not worth over $10k unless the dial is PERFECT OCC gilt.
Plastic screw down 6265/3 are holding on for dear life waiting for someone to get sick of looking at them over $20k so they can be priced to sell at $15-18k. Thats all they are worth! Lots out there people!!! Unless they are papered and exceptional be careful.
1655 Orange are another which has taken a hit as there are lots out there. I trade them in the high 9's to low 10's and let the dealers find an end user. Again, lots out there.
16800 are another dog. Matte or gloss I personally feel any matte should be transitioned to a gloss and sold as a newer watch. the parts are worth more outside the watch, LOL! Seriously, how much are they really worth? Just like 666 and cream non rail all this "transitional" shit is a bit soft. Not very sexy to have a sapphire crystal on a "vintage" watch.
1665 are also way overpriced if over $8k or so.
The reality is if you want to sell for "retail" you go to the auction houses, not online or in the forum markets. Just look at all the "REDUCED" listings or reverse auctions...REVERSE AUCTIONS?????? Come on.
The real dog in all this is the Tudor sub market. Look at the price drop. I mean these are really not "quality" pieces with ETA movements and high prices. BE CAREFUL!
The Tudor MC is another "scary" watch as aside from the home plate, I cannot see them over 410-12k all in and realistically in the $8k range.
The market is in correction and while prices have not bottomed out, there are many good deals to be had if you can not get emotional about these things.
IWJG will come and go. Prices will slip into the summer as they always do when "the money" is on holiday. The question is will prices return to where they are now in September? I personally could care less as I am putting my money on modern and bread and butter pieces.
Enjoy Spring, people...
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Bad World Economy = Strong Watch Market?????
Well, I am not going to say it that way, but even in this crazy world economy IWJG Orlando was strong for many dealers, including this one. Even with common vintage prices down, no mid level stability and not many big pieces, this market is still strong.
Leading the charge is used modern watches. I could have sold two of each model I brought. Current non Rolex are also strong but a little tricky if you are buying for inventory. Datejust ll in steel pre-owned are extremely hot and very hard to come by. Two tone DJ ll are also hot. Steel subs a few years old are selling in and around the $4k range with LV green between $4500-5k. Ladies models were strong for Valentines Day, as usual. All in all, good quality "bread & butter" modern are solid buys, with dealers always looking for stock.
Let's get to vintage. As usual, it is a "two tier" market. Some dealers sell to end users so they are more likely to have higher pricing. Wholesale dealers (like me) prefer to sell only to other dealers. This leads to many variants in pricing within the IWJG room. There are still many booths carrying $10k Zeniths, non papers, nothing special and expecting some "fish" to buy in. We call those dealers "curators". lol! They are hoping and praying the market will come back to 2007/8 levels and bail them out of their dead overpriced inventory. Capitol Preservation. Well, if you are holding perfect big newmans, DRSD, plastics, I can almost understand it, but to hold 5513, 1675, 1680 I think it is a bad move. These watches will NEVER (not within the next 5 years) come back to 07/08 levels and it is crazy, IMO, to sit on cash looking to lay an egg! I sold small pieces cheap on small margin and made a good show when other dealers were shaking their heads wondering why nothing they had is selling. The drop in the Euro did not help as many EU boys were not spending like they usually do. The Asian boys were buying, but were careful. Big pieces had to be special to sell and even then, the pricing was a little down, but in this kind of climate, sales are sales. there were two 6542bakalites, both very nice, that sold over $30k and 40k. newmans were about, but not flying as dealers were not giving an inch, which is understandable. Nicer Gilt pieces had to be REALLY special and I saw a few pieces move, but common everyday 5513 gilt, GMT gilt were all overpriced and went home with their owners.
Steel daytonas are strong in the $8k range for Zenith and Rolex movement, no papers. These just will not go below that point and Zeniths fetch over $10k w/papers with no problem. Good watches to buy, as always. 1655 are still sketchy, with many on the market at various price points. Unpapered 1655 are a good buy under $10-11k. papered models are good in the $13k-14k range. Yes, you must be lucky, but if you look around there are papered models not selling at $15-16k so be careful. 1680 are the strangest model, as you cannot buy one for $4k but have a tough time selling one at $4500! Again, lots around at dumb over $5k pricing. Not realistic. red Subbied, however are very strong commanding over $8k for a nice example and over $12k w/papers. The commercial collectable vintage benchmark is holding strong.
Parts were very strong. I sold alot of stuff and also bought dials and other items for inventory. Parts will always be strong with many projects and restorations going on. many dealers are putting watches together to cut costs and good dials, cases and exspecially hands are at a premium.
Aside from the IWJG show 47th is moving along with modern watches selling briskly. Vintage is around, but many sellers are not educated and are fishing with high buy in pricing, thus keeping them out of the game. My regulars are selling me good stuff at good prices, keeping me IN the game! Bottom line is if it is priced right, it will sell. Speculators are like handicappers, picking winners and losers. If you do not have a buyer, be prepared to hold until one comes into the arena, and when he does there is alot of competition.
Auction time is coming and this will be telling as usual. AQ many nice pieces, as does P & CO. I expect high numbers in both sales. We will be at the previews checking for "funny watches". From the looks of the catalogues, things are OK, with no obvious fakes...but I am still looking! lol
JB
Leading the charge is used modern watches. I could have sold two of each model I brought. Current non Rolex are also strong but a little tricky if you are buying for inventory. Datejust ll in steel pre-owned are extremely hot and very hard to come by. Two tone DJ ll are also hot. Steel subs a few years old are selling in and around the $4k range with LV green between $4500-5k. Ladies models were strong for Valentines Day, as usual. All in all, good quality "bread & butter" modern are solid buys, with dealers always looking for stock.
Let's get to vintage. As usual, it is a "two tier" market. Some dealers sell to end users so they are more likely to have higher pricing. Wholesale dealers (like me) prefer to sell only to other dealers. This leads to many variants in pricing within the IWJG room. There are still many booths carrying $10k Zeniths, non papers, nothing special and expecting some "fish" to buy in. We call those dealers "curators". lol! They are hoping and praying the market will come back to 2007/8 levels and bail them out of their dead overpriced inventory. Capitol Preservation. Well, if you are holding perfect big newmans, DRSD, plastics, I can almost understand it, but to hold 5513, 1675, 1680 I think it is a bad move. These watches will NEVER (not within the next 5 years) come back to 07/08 levels and it is crazy, IMO, to sit on cash looking to lay an egg! I sold small pieces cheap on small margin and made a good show when other dealers were shaking their heads wondering why nothing they had is selling. The drop in the Euro did not help as many EU boys were not spending like they usually do. The Asian boys were buying, but were careful. Big pieces had to be special to sell and even then, the pricing was a little down, but in this kind of climate, sales are sales. there were two 6542bakalites, both very nice, that sold over $30k and 40k. newmans were about, but not flying as dealers were not giving an inch, which is understandable. Nicer Gilt pieces had to be REALLY special and I saw a few pieces move, but common everyday 5513 gilt, GMT gilt were all overpriced and went home with their owners.
Steel daytonas are strong in the $8k range for Zenith and Rolex movement, no papers. These just will not go below that point and Zeniths fetch over $10k w/papers with no problem. Good watches to buy, as always. 1655 are still sketchy, with many on the market at various price points. Unpapered 1655 are a good buy under $10-11k. papered models are good in the $13k-14k range. Yes, you must be lucky, but if you look around there are papered models not selling at $15-16k so be careful. 1680 are the strangest model, as you cannot buy one for $4k but have a tough time selling one at $4500! Again, lots around at dumb over $5k pricing. Not realistic. red Subbied, however are very strong commanding over $8k for a nice example and over $12k w/papers. The commercial collectable vintage benchmark is holding strong.
Parts were very strong. I sold alot of stuff and also bought dials and other items for inventory. Parts will always be strong with many projects and restorations going on. many dealers are putting watches together to cut costs and good dials, cases and exspecially hands are at a premium.
Aside from the IWJG show 47th is moving along with modern watches selling briskly. Vintage is around, but many sellers are not educated and are fishing with high buy in pricing, thus keeping them out of the game. My regulars are selling me good stuff at good prices, keeping me IN the game! Bottom line is if it is priced right, it will sell. Speculators are like handicappers, picking winners and losers. If you do not have a buyer, be prepared to hold until one comes into the arena, and when he does there is alot of competition.
Auction time is coming and this will be telling as usual. AQ many nice pieces, as does P & CO. I expect high numbers in both sales. We will be at the previews checking for "funny watches". From the looks of the catalogues, things are OK, with no obvious fakes...but I am still looking! lol
JB
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Vintage market vs. Bad Economy
As I write this passage, I am struck by how many will not take what I say to heart, or worse, just "poo-poo" it. We have a little problem in the "secondary watch market",. I have been seeing more and more fakes, renumbers, and straight up E-scams over the last few months. Since December I have been offered 2 18k Subs, one was not really such a pin out (no serial number is a give away", but another was extremely well done with real movement, dial, insert. All the gold was 18k and tested with proper Rolex hallmarks but it was ALL not Rolex. Very hard to catch if you do not know what to look for. These watches are floating around 47th as I write this. Sellers sometimes know, sometimes they do not...or do not care.
The other situation worth mention is the rash of E-scams. I see on Ebay some of the greatest deals, but honestly I know many are scams. Mind you, there are many real sellers who are bailing out of stuff, but I know a few guys reading this who bought $6k-7k daytonas who got boxes with fakes in them.
Let's talk Daytona, as it is a barometer for the market as a whole. Steel Zeniths are holding strong in the $8k price range. They are NOT available under $7500 unless you are lucky. Rolex movement steel daytonas are the same. this is good. red Subs are holding in the $8-9k range without papers in excellent condition. Plastic non quick presidents are also going well in the $3k range for head only and over scrap for the bracelet which puts a complete one at $5k...cheap, but not so cheap!
Plastic common 5512, 1675 and 1680 are the interesting ones lately. nice example 1680 cannot be bought for under $4k, but when you get one it is a tough sell at $4500! same for 1675, hard to buy with a good bracelet under $3k, hard sell over $3500.
Gilt is another interesting call. PERFECT PIECES will sell in and around $10k, but they have to be perfect.
Plactic daytona are out there, but no one is burping thus they are all over $20k, unless you get lucky.
Papered big pieces are strong, but sketchy. papered red subs better be PERFECT to hit $13k. DRSD are another story. papered prime examples are still in the $25-30k price range.
6542 are strange. if no bakalite, they are a $10k-15k watch. with a service bakalite, $25k, original bakalite, over that.
I hate those watches because I cannot wear one! i will beat it up too much after an hour or so!.
IWJG Orlando is going to be interesting. The EU is soft and many US dealers are holding on for dear life waiting for out EU brothers to bail them out. I do not see it happening, but who knows. Asian buyers are still in the mix, but not as aggressive since the EU boys slowed down. hey, they are smart. Without the EU boys prices will weaken as US dealers have "tax time" coming, right around the corner. Modern is hot with sport watches leading the way. green subbies, ceramic GMT are in the $5k range, up or down with or without papers.
All in all it is a good time to buy, and a good time to sell if your prices are right. If they are not right, you will not do business.
I will report when I return from Orlando next week. If anyone wants to attend the show please email me:
coda1210@aol.com
all the best...
JB
The other situation worth mention is the rash of E-scams. I see on Ebay some of the greatest deals, but honestly I know many are scams. Mind you, there are many real sellers who are bailing out of stuff, but I know a few guys reading this who bought $6k-7k daytonas who got boxes with fakes in them.
Let's talk Daytona, as it is a barometer for the market as a whole. Steel Zeniths are holding strong in the $8k price range. They are NOT available under $7500 unless you are lucky. Rolex movement steel daytonas are the same. this is good. red Subs are holding in the $8-9k range without papers in excellent condition. Plastic non quick presidents are also going well in the $3k range for head only and over scrap for the bracelet which puts a complete one at $5k...cheap, but not so cheap!
Plastic common 5512, 1675 and 1680 are the interesting ones lately. nice example 1680 cannot be bought for under $4k, but when you get one it is a tough sell at $4500! same for 1675, hard to buy with a good bracelet under $3k, hard sell over $3500.
Gilt is another interesting call. PERFECT PIECES will sell in and around $10k, but they have to be perfect.
Plactic daytona are out there, but no one is burping thus they are all over $20k, unless you get lucky.
Papered big pieces are strong, but sketchy. papered red subs better be PERFECT to hit $13k. DRSD are another story. papered prime examples are still in the $25-30k price range.
6542 are strange. if no bakalite, they are a $10k-15k watch. with a service bakalite, $25k, original bakalite, over that.
I hate those watches because I cannot wear one! i will beat it up too much after an hour or so!.
IWJG Orlando is going to be interesting. The EU is soft and many US dealers are holding on for dear life waiting for out EU brothers to bail them out. I do not see it happening, but who knows. Asian buyers are still in the mix, but not as aggressive since the EU boys slowed down. hey, they are smart. Without the EU boys prices will weaken as US dealers have "tax time" coming, right around the corner. Modern is hot with sport watches leading the way. green subbies, ceramic GMT are in the $5k range, up or down with or without papers.
All in all it is a good time to buy, and a good time to sell if your prices are right. If they are not right, you will not do business.
I will report when I return from Orlando next week. If anyone wants to attend the show please email me:
coda1210@aol.com
all the best...
JB
Friday, January 15, 2010
New Year, New Beginning...another Miami show!
Happy New Year. As many readers know already it was not the greatest holiday season for the tuscanyrose family. Panda, the St. Bernard who was all of 18 months old had to be put down on December 26th. Though we were away for the weeks thereafter, it was a painful time for Jo and James, as well as myself. I am back and trying to get into a groove but it is difficult.
Here is some insight:
The market in December for modern watches was good. We moved lots of newer under
$10k mens and ladies watches, as is usually the case in December. Vintage was strong with bigger pieces selling if priced right but mid level appearing sluggish.
Smaller common pieces were ok, but again had to be priced right. 1680 were strange as you couldn't buy one for under $4500 but you also could not sell for over $4500! lol!
5513 with gloss dials were in the $3k range and only went above if they were on a tight heavy bracelet. Hmmmmm?
GMT 1675 heads were in the $3k range also, with only stellar examples selling over $4k. The 1665 and 1655 were also easy sellers in the $10-12k range without paperwork, but the fake market has reared it's ugly head to reveal a "super fake".
A dealer I know found another papered 1655 that would fool many who are not used to handling the real thing.
Miami is another story.
IWJG was interestering and parts sold well. watches that were priced right sold quickly but the over $10k pieces were a little sluggish. Big unique pieces were hot as was modern. Modern Rolex is very strong as is Cartier. Off price new and lightly used stuff was very hot.
Vintage common was usually overpriced by many dealers and they took the same stuff to the Miami Antique Show, where it is sitting in their showcases as I write.
The "munich" guys are betting they can bring this stuff overseas and dump it on the EU boys, but I think they are smarter than to pay too much for common stuff. A Big Crown that needed work w/gilt service dial sold for under $30k. Plastic Daytona are all over the place with many dealers taking the "protect my capitol investment" stance by not lowering their 2006/7 buy in prices.
Many deals were there to be had if you looked, but it was a little sluggish for this dealer. I bought a nice piece in the Explorer 2 black rail cream, but that was really it. I sold a bunch of smaller pieces for very small margin and as usual parts were what made my show. Lots of VRF'ers were in attendance and a grand time was had by all...I guess!
We as dealers/collectors know one thing. Vintage rolex has it's ups and downs but is always a viable commodity. While it is a little sluggish we must remember it is January and not a big spending month in the USA. Or\lando will be telling as will the big auctions in March. I am selecting some choice pieces to submit and those who want to get the best prices should consider the same.
Happy New Year to all...
Here is some insight:
The market in December for modern watches was good. We moved lots of newer under
$10k mens and ladies watches, as is usually the case in December. Vintage was strong with bigger pieces selling if priced right but mid level appearing sluggish.
Smaller common pieces were ok, but again had to be priced right. 1680 were strange as you couldn't buy one for under $4500 but you also could not sell for over $4500! lol!
5513 with gloss dials were in the $3k range and only went above if they were on a tight heavy bracelet. Hmmmmm?
GMT 1675 heads were in the $3k range also, with only stellar examples selling over $4k. The 1665 and 1655 were also easy sellers in the $10-12k range without paperwork, but the fake market has reared it's ugly head to reveal a "super fake".
A dealer I know found another papered 1655 that would fool many who are not used to handling the real thing.
Miami is another story.
IWJG was interestering and parts sold well. watches that were priced right sold quickly but the over $10k pieces were a little sluggish. Big unique pieces were hot as was modern. Modern Rolex is very strong as is Cartier. Off price new and lightly used stuff was very hot.
Vintage common was usually overpriced by many dealers and they took the same stuff to the Miami Antique Show, where it is sitting in their showcases as I write.
The "munich" guys are betting they can bring this stuff overseas and dump it on the EU boys, but I think they are smarter than to pay too much for common stuff. A Big Crown that needed work w/gilt service dial sold for under $30k. Plastic Daytona are all over the place with many dealers taking the "protect my capitol investment" stance by not lowering their 2006/7 buy in prices.
Many deals were there to be had if you looked, but it was a little sluggish for this dealer. I bought a nice piece in the Explorer 2 black rail cream, but that was really it. I sold a bunch of smaller pieces for very small margin and as usual parts were what made my show. Lots of VRF'ers were in attendance and a grand time was had by all...I guess!
We as dealers/collectors know one thing. Vintage rolex has it's ups and downs but is always a viable commodity. While it is a little sluggish we must remember it is January and not a big spending month in the USA. Or\lando will be telling as will the big auctions in March. I am selecting some choice pieces to submit and those who want to get the best prices should consider the same.
Happy New Year to all...
Friday, December 11, 2009
Winding down from one, gearing up for another!!!
Well, Antiquorum had another MONSTER auction, bringing in over $9 million. $9 million.
It is really good to see the big players stepping up to buy top shelf pieces. It shows they are looking for sound investments and by the looks of these results, they have found them. While Rolex was not in the top 5 highest lots, there were some pretty impressive hammer prices like:
lot 233 @ $182k
This "pre Daytona" 6234 was pristine and it brought in big money for a non oyster.
while the 6238 "pre daytona" lot 232 only brought in $24k, mainly due to the refinished dial.
Lot 226 Milgauss 6541 was respectable even with it's aftermarket hands @ $45k
Parts were strong with lot 206, james bond bezel w/insert sold for $6k, which is about right for a red triangle.
Lot 98 Texas dialed 6263 Paul Newman came in at $70k. Do I say something? Ok, I will say something:
While I have been the one of the "more vocal" dealers speaking out on the texas dial regarding it's status as a "non original" part, these things keep selling and selling for strong money.
It appears people do not really care, so I am taking a back seat and watching the parade! The $10k reward is still up for the taking, and even though I guarantee no one will ever claim it, I am kind of liking these dials these days and would not have a problem wearing one...or dealing one. People know their history and are still paying up, though maybe not as much as a "non texas" Newman dial, so I am backing off.
That said, AQ really took it to the limit with the big Patek lot going $1.2 million w/hammer. Amazing. Big up to Evan, Bob and the crew, and especially Courtney who got my bids in through online problems and all, allowing me to win the 2 lots I wanted most. The bad weather prohibited me from getting to NYC and thanks the great AQ staff (Heather too) my bidding was seamless.
Patrizzi is also shaking things up. While they are setting up for a big payday of their own on Monday, they have a new "silent auction" process which is really going to change the way the big auction houses look at sales. here's how:
During the 3-4 day preview, sellers are allowed to place lots in for an authentic "silent auction". I personally placed 8 pieces with low reserves which will be sold or returned on Monday.
This will allow sellers to circumvent the 3 month turnaround time from drop off to payoff which is a real hassle for guys like me who sell fast and cheap. If it works and pieces sell, it will revolutionize the big auction game and allow more people to join and pull "retail" like prices from their stock. I think Patrizzi has the right idea and even though we have butted heads in the past, I like what they're doing and support them 100%.
I look forward to personally watching the action on 57th Monday. This is a big auction for Patrizzi and I really hope they do well.
news at 11, on Monday that is!
It is really good to see the big players stepping up to buy top shelf pieces. It shows they are looking for sound investments and by the looks of these results, they have found them. While Rolex was not in the top 5 highest lots, there were some pretty impressive hammer prices like:
lot 233 @ $182k
This "pre Daytona" 6234 was pristine and it brought in big money for a non oyster.
while the 6238 "pre daytona" lot 232 only brought in $24k, mainly due to the refinished dial.
Lot 226 Milgauss 6541 was respectable even with it's aftermarket hands @ $45k
Parts were strong with lot 206, james bond bezel w/insert sold for $6k, which is about right for a red triangle.
Lot 98 Texas dialed 6263 Paul Newman came in at $70k. Do I say something? Ok, I will say something:
While I have been the one of the "more vocal" dealers speaking out on the texas dial regarding it's status as a "non original" part, these things keep selling and selling for strong money.
It appears people do not really care, so I am taking a back seat and watching the parade! The $10k reward is still up for the taking, and even though I guarantee no one will ever claim it, I am kind of liking these dials these days and would not have a problem wearing one...or dealing one. People know their history and are still paying up, though maybe not as much as a "non texas" Newman dial, so I am backing off.
That said, AQ really took it to the limit with the big Patek lot going $1.2 million w/hammer. Amazing. Big up to Evan, Bob and the crew, and especially Courtney who got my bids in through online problems and all, allowing me to win the 2 lots I wanted most. The bad weather prohibited me from getting to NYC and thanks the great AQ staff (Heather too) my bidding was seamless.
Patrizzi is also shaking things up. While they are setting up for a big payday of their own on Monday, they have a new "silent auction" process which is really going to change the way the big auction houses look at sales. here's how:
During the 3-4 day preview, sellers are allowed to place lots in for an authentic "silent auction". I personally placed 8 pieces with low reserves which will be sold or returned on Monday.
This will allow sellers to circumvent the 3 month turnaround time from drop off to payoff which is a real hassle for guys like me who sell fast and cheap. If it works and pieces sell, it will revolutionize the big auction game and allow more people to join and pull "retail" like prices from their stock. I think Patrizzi has the right idea and even though we have butted heads in the past, I like what they're doing and support them 100%.
I look forward to personally watching the action on 57th Monday. This is a big auction for Patrizzi and I really hope they do well.
news at 11, on Monday that is!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
The Strange, Strange Market...
What else can I call it? Strange is the only way I can describe a market where big auction houses are pulling crazy prices and mid level ($10-$30k) watches sit on forums. I have seen nice items sit, and crap sell in a heartbeat. It seems with the lack of a strong buying presence (end users) in the USA, we all are shopping our goods overseas. Overseas buyers are paying up, but not at the rate of 2007/8 and thus there is a glut of items on the market which sit above the "entry level" price point. Let's look at plastic daytonas. What is the buy in? I say $20-23k for screw downs, papers add $1-2k depending on package? Well, you cannot buy one. There are some papered ones on the market from known dealers for $28k and they are sitting. Interesting.
Tropical subs are losing steam also. Well, not losing steam but they MUST be priced right to sell. The big matzoh ball is what does "priced right" mean? I cannot tell you. It has to do with a buyers need, as always, but many US dealers are treading very cautiously after getting stuck with lots of overpriced stuff last year before the crash. They will never admit to a crash though. they will point to auction results and justify crazy numbers. What does the buyer make of this? Well, for starters you need to buy very carefully. Gold is continuing to rise and the dollar is dumping, unemployment is at 10% and we hear that business is good. But it is good, very good for certain pieces. If you can buy right and buy what is moving there is money to be made, just not the kind of money many US and EU dealers were making 2 years ago. It is puzzling, but yet we still buy. can this market spike again, as it did in 2007/8? I say no. many disagree, but those are people sitting on millions of dead overpriced stock. OK, not dead stock, just overpriced. The US buyer/end user is tight on funds. disposable income is scarce thus everything has to sell overseas where many of these boys have been collecting for years and have plenty of :"collectables". See my point?
We hear the common person who watches the DOW thinking it is a barometer for the state of the US economy saying "look, it is getting better", not realizing how the market works and who it really affects.
I have not pointed out any examples of high auction sales because may who read this know what I am talking about. many here also can see this "two tier" market continue to spread w/more area in between than ever.
What do we make of it? Are the auction houses "shilling", driving up their prices with fake bids in order to "project" a stronger market? I say no. I could see if it were one auction that was high/unrealistic but all houses are pulling strong numbers so it is unlikely there is any shenanigans. So why are auctions pulling strong numbers and privates cannot sell at the same level?
Maybe it is the following. Auctions historically have appealed to many rich people who get together and bid against each other and against their own egos...see what I mean?
It looks like something I said long ago is happening and that is the auction houses are where to go in order to bring the highest price for any special piece, and any piece in general. They have a following and are trusted. In a couple of weeks P & Co, along with AQ will have their NYC sales and I promise there will be heavy numbers on the buy side.
We just have to look within and see what all this means to the "lower tier"...
Tropical subs are losing steam also. Well, not losing steam but they MUST be priced right to sell. The big matzoh ball is what does "priced right" mean? I cannot tell you. It has to do with a buyers need, as always, but many US dealers are treading very cautiously after getting stuck with lots of overpriced stuff last year before the crash. They will never admit to a crash though. they will point to auction results and justify crazy numbers. What does the buyer make of this? Well, for starters you need to buy very carefully. Gold is continuing to rise and the dollar is dumping, unemployment is at 10% and we hear that business is good. But it is good, very good for certain pieces. If you can buy right and buy what is moving there is money to be made, just not the kind of money many US and EU dealers were making 2 years ago. It is puzzling, but yet we still buy. can this market spike again, as it did in 2007/8? I say no. many disagree, but those are people sitting on millions of dead overpriced stock. OK, not dead stock, just overpriced. The US buyer/end user is tight on funds. disposable income is scarce thus everything has to sell overseas where many of these boys have been collecting for years and have plenty of :"collectables". See my point?
We hear the common person who watches the DOW thinking it is a barometer for the state of the US economy saying "look, it is getting better", not realizing how the market works and who it really affects.
I have not pointed out any examples of high auction sales because may who read this know what I am talking about. many here also can see this "two tier" market continue to spread w/more area in between than ever.
What do we make of it? Are the auction houses "shilling", driving up their prices with fake bids in order to "project" a stronger market? I say no. I could see if it were one auction that was high/unrealistic but all houses are pulling strong numbers so it is unlikely there is any shenanigans. So why are auctions pulling strong numbers and privates cannot sell at the same level?
Maybe it is the following. Auctions historically have appealed to many rich people who get together and bid against each other and against their own egos...see what I mean?
It looks like something I said long ago is happening and that is the auction houses are where to go in order to bring the highest price for any special piece, and any piece in general. They have a following and are trusted. In a couple of weeks P & Co, along with AQ will have their NYC sales and I promise there will be heavy numbers on the buy side.
We just have to look within and see what all this means to the "lower tier"...
Friday, October 30, 2009
IWJG NYC Show Report
As many of you know and have read here, I was not confident going into this show. Having been through the routine of dealer to dealer based shows, I felt there would be nothing priced to buy for resale. Boy, was I wrong.
This show was a total rush from start to finish. I set up in the front, across from Aaron Faber/Patrizzi, left of Bob Wingate, feet away from Robert Maron Watches/AQ. From my first steps around the room, I knew this was going to be a good one. The dealers were buzzing and pricing seemed to be adjusted (for some) and buyers were abundant.
Let's dissect: From a selling standpoint parts were HUGE. I moved more parts at this show than I did since the 2008 Orlando IWJG show. many many foreign buyers looking for anything and everything, paying what I feel to be fair prices. Some strange things sold like newer model dials, old refinished plates, date wheels, and little things. My usual "small ball", high volume sales.
I was buying anything plastic and in the $5k range. I scored many times only to have a buyer offer me more five minutes after I bought it. This went on both days. Flipping is my business and I honestly could have came with nothing but a checkbook and left with the same only with a bigger balance. NICE!!!
Big Patek seemed sluggish with some of the "big boys" bringing home what they brought with them. Well, Brinks had a good day!
Lower end and mid level stuff in and around the $10k price point were moving quickly. I did see many dealers who were overpriced sitting, looking a bit confused as to why they did not sell anything the whole show, and there were a few of them!
Now I am not saying big pieces did not sell (I sold two over $30k, one of them modern) but there were many a dealer who went home with the same olastic Daytona priced between $25-35k. All the big boys had plenty of plastic chronos and they did not sell. the big Newman boys saw the same lack of action. I am not sure if it was the asking price but one BIG dealer said there was alot of lookers, not enough buyers. No worries, these will all sell at auction, where they BELONG!!!
The big part of this show which contributed to the smaller pieces selling was the new IWJG policy which let members invite guests. I has 11 people and some of my regular NY boys come and they all spent, but think about it: these "new dollars" walked in as "CASH ONLY" buyers so how much and which pieces do you think they bought? Corectamundo, the smaller pieces. It was a blessing to have these people bringing in money loosening up the dealers and it was a HUGE success. I have spoken with Olga Bullock, owner of IWJG and she has given me permission to invite as many VRF/TBR (the Buckley Report) readers free of charge to any and all US based shows including Vegas, Miami, Orlando, etc. What a great perk!
This is a sign of the market my faithful readers. not much disposable income so people are going smaller. Many of the big perfect pieces just sat, as well as some way overpriced "tropical" watches.
Patrizzi and Antiquorum were consigning and appeared to do well. Great thing! Look for big pieces to sell swiftly at the right venue, a room full of rich buyers, not dealers looking to turn a profit.
This my take on the show and of course there will be many who disagree. remember,even though I am a dealer, i am telling it like it was for me. remember the motivation of others who may WANT TO SEE IT DIFFERENTLY.
It was my pleasure to attend and if anyone wants to get free admission to any IWJG show, please email me.
JB
This show was a total rush from start to finish. I set up in the front, across from Aaron Faber/Patrizzi, left of Bob Wingate, feet away from Robert Maron Watches/AQ. From my first steps around the room, I knew this was going to be a good one. The dealers were buzzing and pricing seemed to be adjusted (for some) and buyers were abundant.
Let's dissect: From a selling standpoint parts were HUGE. I moved more parts at this show than I did since the 2008 Orlando IWJG show. many many foreign buyers looking for anything and everything, paying what I feel to be fair prices. Some strange things sold like newer model dials, old refinished plates, date wheels, and little things. My usual "small ball", high volume sales.
I was buying anything plastic and in the $5k range. I scored many times only to have a buyer offer me more five minutes after I bought it. This went on both days. Flipping is my business and I honestly could have came with nothing but a checkbook and left with the same only with a bigger balance. NICE!!!
Big Patek seemed sluggish with some of the "big boys" bringing home what they brought with them. Well, Brinks had a good day!
Lower end and mid level stuff in and around the $10k price point were moving quickly. I did see many dealers who were overpriced sitting, looking a bit confused as to why they did not sell anything the whole show, and there were a few of them!
Now I am not saying big pieces did not sell (I sold two over $30k, one of them modern) but there were many a dealer who went home with the same olastic Daytona priced between $25-35k. All the big boys had plenty of plastic chronos and they did not sell. the big Newman boys saw the same lack of action. I am not sure if it was the asking price but one BIG dealer said there was alot of lookers, not enough buyers. No worries, these will all sell at auction, where they BELONG!!!
The big part of this show which contributed to the smaller pieces selling was the new IWJG policy which let members invite guests. I has 11 people and some of my regular NY boys come and they all spent, but think about it: these "new dollars" walked in as "CASH ONLY" buyers so how much and which pieces do you think they bought? Corectamundo, the smaller pieces. It was a blessing to have these people bringing in money loosening up the dealers and it was a HUGE success. I have spoken with Olga Bullock, owner of IWJG and she has given me permission to invite as many VRF/TBR (the Buckley Report) readers free of charge to any and all US based shows including Vegas, Miami, Orlando, etc. What a great perk!
This is a sign of the market my faithful readers. not much disposable income so people are going smaller. Many of the big perfect pieces just sat, as well as some way overpriced "tropical" watches.
Patrizzi and Antiquorum were consigning and appeared to do well. Great thing! Look for big pieces to sell swiftly at the right venue, a room full of rich buyers, not dealers looking to turn a profit.
This my take on the show and of course there will be many who disagree. remember,even though I am a dealer, i am telling it like it was for me. remember the motivation of others who may WANT TO SEE IT DIFFERENTLY.
It was my pleasure to attend and if anyone wants to get free admission to any IWJG show, please email me.
JB
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
As October Winds Down (or up)...
October is usually a strong month in the watch world. Modern dealers are stocking up for the holidays and many times, people are thinking year end bonus and what to do with it. Last October was pitiful, with all that "stock market fallout" stuff and the wild economy. This October is more stable with the auction houses getting much of the big vintage action, meaning heavy pieces.
Most of the stuff I am seeing is smaller under $20k goods which are much easier to move in troubled times. By working on small margin, there is swift action thus good profit. The dealers who are having problems are the guys who are holding on for the last dollar on the table, looking for an end user who may or may not have much knowledge and thus will pay up. These sellers are hoping the market shoots up and are pricing based on these assumptions. In most cases, they will just sit on dead inventory. I personally cannot see the point of holding merch that was bought during the peak of the market with cheap money. I hear over and over "I paid this or that", but ultimately, the CASH is worth more now, even if you are losing a few points-10/20%. It makes no sense to me. With prices very sketchy it seems only dealers are buying. Many end users are not in the game due to the bad US/EU economy. Asia is pumping but it seems it is all dealers. The US end user is not prevalent in this game and therefore all roads lead to overseas buyers. This is key in terms of market price decline. Remember, the US buyer fueled the "watch bull run" of 2006-8. These guys borrowed cheap money from their HELOC and bought stuff be it new cars, new bathrooms or vintage/new watches. With these players out of the game, there is a dynamic missing and thus, prices are softening. regardless, dealers are holding on, keeping prices up thus keeping new players out. The buzz in the USA for new end users is not a good one. The pieces moving are in the $5k range, entry level stuff. This is good, but with everyone knowing about vintage subs, GMTs and the like, no dealer can buy them right enough to make a decent profit. Think about it, with ebay flashing nutty "buy it nows", civilians search and know how much stuff is worth to the last dollar, many times unrealistically, but they have a database.
On 47th there are so many hawks we never see a fresh piece, and when we do the seller has "educated" themselves and there is no/very little profit. I am still buying as it is better to make a tiny profit than none at all, but it takes alot of pieces to make it worthwhile.
The IWJG show will be very telling. With all the hullabaloo after the Vegas show it will be interesting if there is anything to buy. Understand, these sellers are all online, ebayed and Muniched so what is the point of selling to another dealer when their real customer and profit is a FEDEX or flight away? Who knows. I will be there regardless, cash/checkbook in hand ready for the one deal to make a show. There's always ONE!!!
I look forward to seeing everyone in NYC and al the best...
Most of the stuff I am seeing is smaller under $20k goods which are much easier to move in troubled times. By working on small margin, there is swift action thus good profit. The dealers who are having problems are the guys who are holding on for the last dollar on the table, looking for an end user who may or may not have much knowledge and thus will pay up. These sellers are hoping the market shoots up and are pricing based on these assumptions. In most cases, they will just sit on dead inventory. I personally cannot see the point of holding merch that was bought during the peak of the market with cheap money. I hear over and over "I paid this or that", but ultimately, the CASH is worth more now, even if you are losing a few points-10/20%. It makes no sense to me. With prices very sketchy it seems only dealers are buying. Many end users are not in the game due to the bad US/EU economy. Asia is pumping but it seems it is all dealers. The US end user is not prevalent in this game and therefore all roads lead to overseas buyers. This is key in terms of market price decline. Remember, the US buyer fueled the "watch bull run" of 2006-8. These guys borrowed cheap money from their HELOC and bought stuff be it new cars, new bathrooms or vintage/new watches. With these players out of the game, there is a dynamic missing and thus, prices are softening. regardless, dealers are holding on, keeping prices up thus keeping new players out. The buzz in the USA for new end users is not a good one. The pieces moving are in the $5k range, entry level stuff. This is good, but with everyone knowing about vintage subs, GMTs and the like, no dealer can buy them right enough to make a decent profit. Think about it, with ebay flashing nutty "buy it nows", civilians search and know how much stuff is worth to the last dollar, many times unrealistically, but they have a database.
On 47th there are so many hawks we never see a fresh piece, and when we do the seller has "educated" themselves and there is no/very little profit. I am still buying as it is better to make a tiny profit than none at all, but it takes alot of pieces to make it worthwhile.
The IWJG show will be very telling. With all the hullabaloo after the Vegas show it will be interesting if there is anything to buy. Understand, these sellers are all online, ebayed and Muniched so what is the point of selling to another dealer when their real customer and profit is a FEDEX or flight away? Who knows. I will be there regardless, cash/checkbook in hand ready for the one deal to make a show. There's always ONE!!!
I look forward to seeing everyone in NYC and al the best...
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Buckley responds:
First, I was personally asked by Ed Faber to review any vintage Rolex that came in for sale due to the many fakes that have been sold by auction houses over the years. It was a friendly agreement, with me never asking for money, just a "blip in the catalogue" as a courtesy. Fortunately, I was present before lot 198 made it to the block for the June 7th NYC sale. That watch has a $30k or so reserve. FAKE. Experts missed it. Your "experts" have now overlooked an even MORE obvious fake in lot 169 of the current catalogue. Does anyone see a pattern of your "experts" no spotting the vintage rolex fakes? I mean, 169 was spotted by an associate by viewing the catalogue, never having held the watch. When I saw it, I agreed it was a BAD fake red dial from early 2000 Vietnamese made.
Our "agreement" was out of friendship and our mutual desire to not have P & Co. be like some of the other houses which are looked at with not much respect. John Buckley/tuscanyrose has always backed the right horse and has never been afraid to point out bad/questionable stuff. It was an agreement and everyone who was anyone via the online forum world knew it and was glad I was assisting.
Let's get back to the "texas" dial. Obviously whoever you are within P & Co organization you may or may not know that I have personally put up a $10,000.00 reward for anyone who can show me a Rolex catalogue or auction catalogue showing a "texas" dial prior to 1994. I take that stuff seriously. Osvaldo and I spoke at great length in Miami this past January and I believed he was on the same page. Personally speaking, I am sure Osvaldo does not get to inspect all the watches coming for sale. Even if he did, frankly he is not up on the many variations and levels of fake stuff that has come about over the years. It is no fault of his own but he is not a "street dealer" who has the advantage of seeing the full spectrum of watches. Many times auction houses receive watches cherry picked from someone's safe, or in the case of many fakes, constructed to "fool the experts' of any given house.
Regarding your "experts", where are they? They are certainly not in NYC. Anyone in NYC knows to come see me if they have any questionable watches or dials and I will always give them courtesy.
My own personal watchmaker was asked to work for P & Co. and quite frankly, even with his 20 + years at Rolex is not up on fakes like I am.
This leaves you with a small problem which is only going to become bigger. How does a lot 169 get by your experts? Mistakes? Te err is human? Tell that to the poor soul who trusts the auction house and buys it, only to be duped (unintentionally), but no matter. Collectors do not forget buying fake stuff. Collectors trust their own.
Please understand I offered my expertise freely and unconditionally. I attached my good name and stellar reputation out of friendship and quite honestly "a blip in the catalogue". Though I never got the blip, it was not as important as me seeing the Rolex inventory and making sure it was clean. When I received calls last week from associates and online dealers/collectors asking what an obvious fake (169) is doing in the catalogue I was quite disturbed. The most disturbing part is there is obviously no one on hand to spot the obvious fakes so what will happen when a really good one comes in?
Oh yeah, the 5 year return policy. My services were offered unconditionally/free of charge and by not taking my services or expertise seriously, another bad fake graces your catalogue for all the watch world to see. All you had to do is send some scans. I was not asking for anything but even after the lot 198 debacle, no one believes they need assistance.
You folks do not have anyone qualified to spot this kind of stuff. PERIOD. Not many of the big houses do. That is why it was important to me for P & Co to be different, standing behind quality.
Ita, I would love to take you up on your invite to the Geneva HQ, have some coffee and examine some watches. It is not my intention to offend anyone as I am quite fond of Ed, Philip and Osvaldo but your your house will not be taken seriously by the real collectors until you get a handle on this obvious problem. 30 years experience on a watchmakers bench sometimes does not mean anything when a very well made 'dangerous" fake is constructed with the express purpose of fooling someone.
I care about quality and hate the idea of someone buying a bad watch. I believe the auction houses are in the right place at the right time for buyers/collectors and can be very successful, but only if there is a very strict counterfeit protection policy.
I harbor no ill feelings and still offer my services and expertise at no charge to your organization as I feel it is important P & Co have someone who can spot these fakes.
best regards...
Our "agreement" was out of friendship and our mutual desire to not have P & Co. be like some of the other houses which are looked at with not much respect. John Buckley/tuscanyrose has always backed the right horse and has never been afraid to point out bad/questionable stuff. It was an agreement and everyone who was anyone via the online forum world knew it and was glad I was assisting.
Let's get back to the "texas" dial. Obviously whoever you are within P & Co organization you may or may not know that I have personally put up a $10,000.00 reward for anyone who can show me a Rolex catalogue or auction catalogue showing a "texas" dial prior to 1994. I take that stuff seriously. Osvaldo and I spoke at great length in Miami this past January and I believed he was on the same page. Personally speaking, I am sure Osvaldo does not get to inspect all the watches coming for sale. Even if he did, frankly he is not up on the many variations and levels of fake stuff that has come about over the years. It is no fault of his own but he is not a "street dealer" who has the advantage of seeing the full spectrum of watches. Many times auction houses receive watches cherry picked from someone's safe, or in the case of many fakes, constructed to "fool the experts' of any given house.
Regarding your "experts", where are they? They are certainly not in NYC. Anyone in NYC knows to come see me if they have any questionable watches or dials and I will always give them courtesy.
My own personal watchmaker was asked to work for P & Co. and quite frankly, even with his 20 + years at Rolex is not up on fakes like I am.
This leaves you with a small problem which is only going to become bigger. How does a lot 169 get by your experts? Mistakes? Te err is human? Tell that to the poor soul who trusts the auction house and buys it, only to be duped (unintentionally), but no matter. Collectors do not forget buying fake stuff. Collectors trust their own.
Please understand I offered my expertise freely and unconditionally. I attached my good name and stellar reputation out of friendship and quite honestly "a blip in the catalogue". Though I never got the blip, it was not as important as me seeing the Rolex inventory and making sure it was clean. When I received calls last week from associates and online dealers/collectors asking what an obvious fake (169) is doing in the catalogue I was quite disturbed. The most disturbing part is there is obviously no one on hand to spot the obvious fakes so what will happen when a really good one comes in?
Oh yeah, the 5 year return policy. My services were offered unconditionally/free of charge and by not taking my services or expertise seriously, another bad fake graces your catalogue for all the watch world to see. All you had to do is send some scans. I was not asking for anything but even after the lot 198 debacle, no one believes they need assistance.
You folks do not have anyone qualified to spot this kind of stuff. PERIOD. Not many of the big houses do. That is why it was important to me for P & Co to be different, standing behind quality.
Ita, I would love to take you up on your invite to the Geneva HQ, have some coffee and examine some watches. It is not my intention to offend anyone as I am quite fond of Ed, Philip and Osvaldo but your your house will not be taken seriously by the real collectors until you get a handle on this obvious problem. 30 years experience on a watchmakers bench sometimes does not mean anything when a very well made 'dangerous" fake is constructed with the express purpose of fooling someone.
I care about quality and hate the idea of someone buying a bad watch. I believe the auction houses are in the right place at the right time for buyers/collectors and can be very successful, but only if there is a very strict counterfeit protection policy.
I harbor no ill feelings and still offer my services and expertise at no charge to your organization as I feel it is important P & Co have someone who can spot these fakes.
best regards...
Patrizzi responds...
For those who did not see, there is a comment at the bottom of my previous post. I will respond shortly...
Ita said...
As a regular reader of your blog I was surprised to read your comments in your Thursday October 15 blog and feel I should respond. Probably it is best that I give my comments in the order that you made yours…
1. “Listing a Texas dial PN and calling it correct.”
Being in the watch business yourself, I’m sure you are aware that one expert’s “texas” dial is another expert’s Rolex dial and that the discussions on this could go on forever and ever (as you would know if you were ever present in our watchroom when our experts are writing a catalog) but, at the end of the day, it all boils down to whether you like the piece and want to buy it or not. Added to which, at Patrizzi & Co we offer you the added reassurance that we give a 5-year guarantee on all our watches.
Given the fact that between our auctions and private treaty business we see more than 2,500 timepieces pass through our hands each year (watches, clocks, scientific instruments, automatons, musical clocks and watchmaking tools – all dating from the 15th century to the present day) – I do hope you will forgive us if we make an occasional error – after all to err is human – to forgive (they say) is divine! I know you love Rolex, but horological works are not only Rolex but the whole spectrum of watches and mechanical masterpieces.
2. “my thoughts are I am going to meet with them and sever our agreement.”
I have to say that we are unaware of any agreement you may have with Patrizzi & Co – I have asked my colleagues here, in New York and in Milan, and of course Osvaldo Patrizzi, and no one is aware of any current agreement we may have with you. So I am not sure how you will be able to break an agreement that does not exist.
3. “I cannot have them leaving the catalog to inexperienced people they have on their staff and my name being associated with them.” (For the last part of your comment see my response no. 2 – to the best of my knowledge your name is not associated with us and ours is not associated with yours…)
Our experts who write our catalogs are very experienced (each with more than 30 years of watchmaking experience) – and yes, we naturally have trainee experts learning their trade with us – but these work alongside our watchmakers and senior watch experts – all working together, exchanging information and physically checking the watches together. I would be very happy to invite you to our Geneva HQ to see for yourself the next catalog being produced and to enjoy the debate and reexamination of watches it occasions.
Ita McCobb, Patrizzi & Co
October 17, 2009 6:32 AM
Ita said...
As a regular reader of your blog I was surprised to read your comments in your Thursday October 15 blog and feel I should respond. Probably it is best that I give my comments in the order that you made yours…
1. “Listing a Texas dial PN and calling it correct.”
Being in the watch business yourself, I’m sure you are aware that one expert’s “texas” dial is another expert’s Rolex dial and that the discussions on this could go on forever and ever (as you would know if you were ever present in our watchroom when our experts are writing a catalog) but, at the end of the day, it all boils down to whether you like the piece and want to buy it or not. Added to which, at Patrizzi & Co we offer you the added reassurance that we give a 5-year guarantee on all our watches.
Given the fact that between our auctions and private treaty business we see more than 2,500 timepieces pass through our hands each year (watches, clocks, scientific instruments, automatons, musical clocks and watchmaking tools – all dating from the 15th century to the present day) – I do hope you will forgive us if we make an occasional error – after all to err is human – to forgive (they say) is divine! I know you love Rolex, but horological works are not only Rolex but the whole spectrum of watches and mechanical masterpieces.
2. “my thoughts are I am going to meet with them and sever our agreement.”
I have to say that we are unaware of any agreement you may have with Patrizzi & Co – I have asked my colleagues here, in New York and in Milan, and of course Osvaldo Patrizzi, and no one is aware of any current agreement we may have with you. So I am not sure how you will be able to break an agreement that does not exist.
3. “I cannot have them leaving the catalog to inexperienced people they have on their staff and my name being associated with them.” (For the last part of your comment see my response no. 2 – to the best of my knowledge your name is not associated with us and ours is not associated with yours…)
Our experts who write our catalogs are very experienced (each with more than 30 years of watchmaking experience) – and yes, we naturally have trainee experts learning their trade with us – but these work alongside our watchmakers and senior watch experts – all working together, exchanging information and physically checking the watches together. I would be very happy to invite you to our Geneva HQ to see for yourself the next catalog being produced and to enjoy the debate and reexamination of watches it occasions.
Ita McCobb, Patrizzi & Co
October 17, 2009 6:32 AM
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Patrizzi & Co. need to shape up...
Well, it did not take long for P & Co to follow along with the other houses by listing a "texas" dial PN and calling it correct. No surprise. As I write this, my thoughts are I am going to meet with them and sever our agreement. I cannot have them leaving the catalog to the inexperienced people they have on staff and my name being associated with them. Lot 169 is just so blatant an oversight I can barely stand it. This is what happens when you get "experts" who learn their craft by reading books and on the internet. There is no way around it, you MUST handle watches, and not just watches people bring for auction, lots of them on a daily basis in order to understand the differences between real and fake.
While I am flabbergasted I am also glad to be on the path of my real choosing: being the watchdog of auction houses and pointing out all the discrepancies. Troubleshooter, I like to call it! lol
My God, what are these people thinking?
While I am flabbergasted I am also glad to be on the path of my real choosing: being the watchdog of auction houses and pointing out all the discrepancies. Troubleshooter, I like to call it! lol
My God, what are these people thinking?
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Auction follow-up
Bottom line appears to be nothing hit reserve. The auction totaled 3 million or so w/1.2 going to one watch.
Contrary to prior statements, the Rolex were sparse but those in the auction were not bad. the 16800 was as nice a package as you would see here but reserve had to be well over the last bid 6k. $6k was a fair price for a 16800 full set, maybe even low for one that nice but it was certainly not a $9k package. The 5508 had a story during the auction with power going down with someone winning at $11k then they restarted and it was $14k. While the 5508 was "ok", it was not pristine and I think $14k was way too much for that particular piece.
The 1655 was the biggest joke getting up to $13.5k for a 7 million swiss t <25 model (nice one too) but what could the reserve possibly be? I mean come on, I have sold 6 of those in the last 2 months none selling over $12k.
I think everyone is a little gassed up from the Vegas show and AQ sales. While stuff is moving, it has to be priced right. take a look at the VRM and it tells the story. same stuff overpriced to begin with sitting and sitting. stuff priced right is sold with two and three back up buyers. Now the big "matzo ball" is the perfect piece. OH YES, QUALITY AND PERFECTION IS STILL KEY!!
To a degree, yes it is. But again, if someone pops a perfect red sub full set on at $25k it is not going ANYWHERE.
The big lift in pricing over 2005-8 was fueled by cheap American money with $200k yr guys getting in and buying up many times "sub par" stuff. now people are looking for either a deal, or they want perfection at the right price.
Look at VRM and it shows price point. I do not like Ebay as a barometer though it is helpful.
Here is a prediction for IWJG and some may not like it. Prices will not be right. Dealers are too gassed up and you will hear the old "I can get more in Munich or Ebay". It will be a good show for smaller items, parts, and other stuff but there will not be any watches a dealer can buy and then sell here on VRF. Why should there be? all the dealers at IWJG are reading this lol!
All in all is fair to say the P & Co. sale taught us a few things. first off you have to know the market before telling someone you can sell their watch for stupid money. next though it is nice for buyers, the "no commission" hammer price is not good for sellers and it shows. sellers have to pad their stuff in order to not get hurt, thus high reserves.
Contrary to prior statements, the Rolex were sparse but those in the auction were not bad. the 16800 was as nice a package as you would see here but reserve had to be well over the last bid 6k. $6k was a fair price for a 16800 full set, maybe even low for one that nice but it was certainly not a $9k package. The 5508 had a story during the auction with power going down with someone winning at $11k then they restarted and it was $14k. While the 5508 was "ok", it was not pristine and I think $14k was way too much for that particular piece.
The 1655 was the biggest joke getting up to $13.5k for a 7 million swiss t <25 model (nice one too) but what could the reserve possibly be? I mean come on, I have sold 6 of those in the last 2 months none selling over $12k.
I think everyone is a little gassed up from the Vegas show and AQ sales. While stuff is moving, it has to be priced right. take a look at the VRM and it tells the story. same stuff overpriced to begin with sitting and sitting. stuff priced right is sold with two and three back up buyers. Now the big "matzo ball" is the perfect piece. OH YES, QUALITY AND PERFECTION IS STILL KEY!!
To a degree, yes it is. But again, if someone pops a perfect red sub full set on at $25k it is not going ANYWHERE.
The big lift in pricing over 2005-8 was fueled by cheap American money with $200k yr guys getting in and buying up many times "sub par" stuff. now people are looking for either a deal, or they want perfection at the right price.
Look at VRM and it shows price point. I do not like Ebay as a barometer though it is helpful.
Here is a prediction for IWJG and some may not like it. Prices will not be right. Dealers are too gassed up and you will hear the old "I can get more in Munich or Ebay". It will be a good show for smaller items, parts, and other stuff but there will not be any watches a dealer can buy and then sell here on VRF. Why should there be? all the dealers at IWJG are reading this lol!
All in all is fair to say the P & Co. sale taught us a few things. first off you have to know the market before telling someone you can sell their watch for stupid money. next though it is nice for buyers, the "no commission" hammer price is not good for sellers and it shows. sellers have to pad their stuff in order to not get hurt, thus high reserves.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Patrizzi & Co. Sale
The Patrizzi auction of October 7th was very telling. I entered late, lot 30 or so, but was pleased to find a full room and a good buzz. This was lacking at the previous US Patrizzi & Co. sale in June. Good sign.
What happened next was surprising to some, but not to me. Lot after lot went unsold. This happened because many of the reserves were IMO way out of sync with the market. I mean come on a 1655 7 million (lot 74) gets a bid of $13.5k and does not hit reserve???? I know this is a venue for "end users' but in the room were many of the "usual suspect" NYC dealers looking to cash in on the "no buyers premium" P & Co. is known for. I do not know about them, but this NYC dealer had no luck, or should I say no intention of paying up for pieces which were WAY overpriced and thus, went back to their owners.
When are people going to wake up and admit there is a money problem in this country and EU. Remember people, the reason for the "Revolution" in watch pricing was the availability of cheap money and credit in THIS country allowing many new players to come to the plate. Without these buyers, mid level stuff will not move. Here is another example: There was a steel Zenith Daytona w/papers (yes, those were papers) stalls at $9k we need to re-evaluate how much we pay for this kind of piece. Think about it: on 47th street you cannot buy a Daytona, Zenith or otherwise, for less than $8k. Does anyone else see what I am seeing? What was the reserve on that piece? had to be AT LEAST $11k. No takers. Yet, a platinum old style double quick President w/papers sells for $18k. ????? I just sold one to another NY dealer (new style, no papers) for $16 the day prior.
Two Tier, my friends. But Two Tier does not account for a Sky Moon selling for $1.2 million...or does it? It seems the big pieces sold for BIG money but not to US buyers. Surprised? Of course not. Or maybe you just do not want to admit it.
Pass after pass. One NY fixture sitting behind me was visibly frustrated. Why not? Better yet, WHY???
More after I collect my thoughts...
What happened next was surprising to some, but not to me. Lot after lot went unsold. This happened because many of the reserves were IMO way out of sync with the market. I mean come on a 1655 7 million (lot 74) gets a bid of $13.5k and does not hit reserve???? I know this is a venue for "end users' but in the room were many of the "usual suspect" NYC dealers looking to cash in on the "no buyers premium" P & Co. is known for. I do not know about them, but this NYC dealer had no luck, or should I say no intention of paying up for pieces which were WAY overpriced and thus, went back to their owners.
When are people going to wake up and admit there is a money problem in this country and EU. Remember people, the reason for the "Revolution" in watch pricing was the availability of cheap money and credit in THIS country allowing many new players to come to the plate. Without these buyers, mid level stuff will not move. Here is another example: There was a steel Zenith Daytona w/papers (yes, those were papers) stalls at $9k we need to re-evaluate how much we pay for this kind of piece. Think about it: on 47th street you cannot buy a Daytona, Zenith or otherwise, for less than $8k. Does anyone else see what I am seeing? What was the reserve on that piece? had to be AT LEAST $11k. No takers. Yet, a platinum old style double quick President w/papers sells for $18k. ????? I just sold one to another NY dealer (new style, no papers) for $16 the day prior.
Two Tier, my friends. But Two Tier does not account for a Sky Moon selling for $1.2 million...or does it? It seems the big pieces sold for BIG money but not to US buyers. Surprised? Of course not. Or maybe you just do not want to admit it.
Pass after pass. One NY fixture sitting behind me was visibly frustrated. Why not? Better yet, WHY???
More after I collect my thoughts...
Friday, October 2, 2009
Short overview...
As many know, things have been a bit crazy around NY/NJ. Beginning of a new school for James, my mother falling and fracturing her pelvis last week, and other "stuff" in NYC w/partners. Fact of the matter is we are seeing alot of action in NYC on modern AND vintage. The variable is pricing. If is is crap, it must be priced right, as if it is MINT it must be priced right to sell. A quick look at the VRM will tell what stuff is priced right and what is not. If it sold, it is priced right, or "priced to sell". if it has been relisted over and over, it is not right for THIS MARKET.
The strong IWJG show report was nice to hear, bur we have to take into consideration what sold and at what price point. Did dealers dump and drop their pants? Not likely. Did they get 20k red sub w/papers money? Not likely. I am sure it was somewhere in between. Remember, there are many non US byuers who have strong money vs. the dollar and I am sure this is what accounted for most of the strong purchases.
Not a bad thing, but something to be considered.
is the market on a rebound? I guess that is what dealers would want to have happen and have the buying public believe. Is it happening across the board? Let's discus:
I can only vouch for NYC and 47th street when I say many there are "scared" of vintage. there are many longtime dealers who got the vintage bug and are now holding overpriced items "waiting for the market to rebound".
will it ever be like 2 years ago? Not likely. Why?
The phenomenon which occurred in the vintage market between 2006-8 was in effect "the perfect storm".
remember, for many years EU and Asian buyers have been into these pieces whereas the US buyers were not as present. There was alot of "cheap money" and many new "professionals" out there making $200k annually who caught the bug and dove in. now that these players have left the stadium, or are not as liquid, the demand domestically has declined. In come the EU/Asians who always played and know the game better. They know quality and what will sell in their particular market, as they have been doing it for decades.
The US buyers who bought anything as long as it was vintage rolex, have a problem. They bought stuff which in a strong market would sell in a flash and now cannot give it away. so what do they do? They hold on and hold on, and hold on waiting for the "rebound" but nothing happens with their piece because it is not "perfect" or marketable to the more experienced buyers/collectors.
At this time it is just a waiting game.
NYC sees alot of nice vintage stuff and also alot of the sub-par stuff I spoke about. Does it sell, sure but at drastically reduced prices. It may not be the Phillip Stahl or Jedly type piece, but these watches have value to mainly other dealers who "part them out" in order to make a buck. The steel changes hands and maney goes with it.
Is the market back? I am still not sure but something is happening. Is it good? Yes, for sure it is better than when nothing was selling for any price.
The P & Co auction on the 7th will be interesting as there are only a handful of vintage Rolex. the AQ Hong Konk auction has alot of stuff, but as was discussed before on VRF, many "Purists" are have ing a tough time accepting what they consider to be "authentic".
Sidebar: Though Texas dials are NOT Rolex, they have a value to many on this planet. Are they only "novice" collectors? think not. Those 3 CROC and other "texas" variations have a longtime following, and while they do, auction houses will sell them.
I believe it is an exciting time in the vintage world nonetheless. I have been buying heavy every day. The trick is buying right and selling right. I want to wish all who read this happy autumn and let's "turn and burn"!
The strong IWJG show report was nice to hear, bur we have to take into consideration what sold and at what price point. Did dealers dump and drop their pants? Not likely. Did they get 20k red sub w/papers money? Not likely. I am sure it was somewhere in between. Remember, there are many non US byuers who have strong money vs. the dollar and I am sure this is what accounted for most of the strong purchases.
Not a bad thing, but something to be considered.
is the market on a rebound? I guess that is what dealers would want to have happen and have the buying public believe. Is it happening across the board? Let's discus:
I can only vouch for NYC and 47th street when I say many there are "scared" of vintage. there are many longtime dealers who got the vintage bug and are now holding overpriced items "waiting for the market to rebound".
will it ever be like 2 years ago? Not likely. Why?
The phenomenon which occurred in the vintage market between 2006-8 was in effect "the perfect storm".
remember, for many years EU and Asian buyers have been into these pieces whereas the US buyers were not as present. There was alot of "cheap money" and many new "professionals" out there making $200k annually who caught the bug and dove in. now that these players have left the stadium, or are not as liquid, the demand domestically has declined. In come the EU/Asians who always played and know the game better. They know quality and what will sell in their particular market, as they have been doing it for decades.
The US buyers who bought anything as long as it was vintage rolex, have a problem. They bought stuff which in a strong market would sell in a flash and now cannot give it away. so what do they do? They hold on and hold on, and hold on waiting for the "rebound" but nothing happens with their piece because it is not "perfect" or marketable to the more experienced buyers/collectors.
At this time it is just a waiting game.
NYC sees alot of nice vintage stuff and also alot of the sub-par stuff I spoke about. Does it sell, sure but at drastically reduced prices. It may not be the Phillip Stahl or Jedly type piece, but these watches have value to mainly other dealers who "part them out" in order to make a buck. The steel changes hands and maney goes with it.
Is the market back? I am still not sure but something is happening. Is it good? Yes, for sure it is better than when nothing was selling for any price.
The P & Co auction on the 7th will be interesting as there are only a handful of vintage Rolex. the AQ Hong Konk auction has alot of stuff, but as was discussed before on VRF, many "Purists" are have ing a tough time accepting what they consider to be "authentic".
Sidebar: Though Texas dials are NOT Rolex, they have a value to many on this planet. Are they only "novice" collectors? think not. Those 3 CROC and other "texas" variations have a longtime following, and while they do, auction houses will sell them.
I believe it is an exciting time in the vintage world nonetheless. I have been buying heavy every day. The trick is buying right and selling right. I want to wish all who read this happy autumn and let's "turn and burn"!
Friday, September 18, 2009
Antiquorum Starts Season Off With A BANG!!!
Antiquorum CEO Evan Zimmerman walked over to me as I was inspecting some watches on the Wednesday preview and with a wink stated "we have more registered bidders than ever". Hmmmmmmmmm.
My mind begins to wander. Everyone who sees me at shows and in NYC like to engage in "market talk". As the self professed "king of market gloom and doom" I am sometimes skeptical of smaller dealers on the street who want me to hear some crap about how they sold a 1501 Date for $2k and expect me to blow it up on my blog and VRF. Maybe they are buried in a few? lol!!
"Real players" lay back in the cut and analyze so I wondered, is this going to be the big market indicator for the season?
I do not know but if yesterday's auction in NYC is any indication of where the market is going, I can only say "WOW"!
There are many ways to get an understanding of how an auction will play out. While sitting at the preview it was clear this was going to be a good one. Lots of people examining watches, pulling them apart, checking serials and casebacks. I was there with my trusty sidekick Viper who loves nothing more than pulling things apart and scrutinizing.
We arrived Thursday morning a bit into the first session, 30 lots in. As I sat down a beaming AQ Chairman Bob Maron walks over tells us the smaller lots in the beginning are doing "extremely well". Nice. Bobby's happy already. That's a good thing.
I was interested in the vintage Rolex, which by all accounts was scarce in this sale on the whole, and big Patek. Lots 93 and 94 go off as expected. Lot 95 then hammers at $7k which IMO is a little strong but not unexpected. Lots 97/98 go the same route. When lot 104 does not hit reserve, I am a little uneasy as it was just so perfect and sold for $100k last year. Then came lot 120, the 5970 Tiff which blew up over $130k+ BC. Lot 140 Breguet clock/watch combo sold for over $500k. By lot 173 the tsunami continued with a nice but ordinary 5513 went for $6k w/buyers commission! Lot 176 Tiffany 1016 was over $6500 w/BC, lot 177 $45k+.
Lot 179 was the killer selling for $84k w/BC. $84k!!!!
Patek lot 216 the "platinum Gilbert Albert" came close to $100k, which really was indicative of most Patek, current or vintage. All sold well which leads me to believe people are looking to plant money somewhere, ANYWHERE, but in the bank and want hard, tangible items with a proven history of value over the long term.
Lot 341 green Milgauss closed at $7200 which is amazing
My personal favorite (lol) lot 343 the Bamford Blackout Daytona closed soft, IMO at around $20k.
Can anyone say PRO-HUNTER???? There is no substitute!
LOL
Lots 350 and 351, 5513 mattes, closed in the mid $4k range, with lot 532 coming close to hitting $50k even with many "non Milsub" issues.
My other personal favorite lot 353 the cream 16550 full set closed over $15k. Lot 354 the 1530 full boat also did very well at $8k.
Lot 356, the orange hand, did not hit reserve which is not surprising as there are alot out there and can be had in the $11k range.
Lot 357 held it's own at $27k+ to round up the Rolex.
The big Patek lots were what really brought home the show:
Lot 401 over $74k, lot 402 clost to $400k but lot 413 and 414 hit the higher of their respective estimates at $780k and $680k+.
I must say, as I watch the market daily I did not see the strong "big Patek" numbers coming. They talk about a lack of money but it is apparent people will sock money into something which has a proven track record. Vintage Rolex is still hanging very strong in the auction world too. One observation I made during the day was there are deals to be had at auction and on the street but the "two tier" market is still in play. If you buy right, you can get top dollar at auction and vice-versa. We see deals on 47th and beyond, but these are serious Patek numbers. Some of the "more common Patek" did almost retail+ in many lots.
Patrizzi and Co are next on October 7th. While they may have not many Rolex in their sale, they are counting on higher quality pieces, as opposed to quantity. I am told by insiders that P & Co have lots coming in droves, but Osvaldo Patrizzi is not accepting anything but prime examples, which is refreshing and necessary.
I am very excited to see what happens on October 7th at Patrizzi & Co. Their sale will either solidify the market as real, or show this AQ auction to be a fluke. I am betting the market is coming back strong, but for the mere fact that cash is worth less and less each day. When inflation hits here and around the world, we can always use a red Subbie to trade for groceries!'
lol
One last comment on yesterday's auction is this: Antiquorum had the "buzz" going...AGAIN! You could feel the electricity in the air when you arrived. Though I had to leave a little early I could tell it was going to be very strong w/sales close to $10 million. Not bad in a slumping Obamamerica, huh?
Again, many congratulations to Bob, Evan and the AQ team for a splendid sale and overall top rate event...
My mind begins to wander. Everyone who sees me at shows and in NYC like to engage in "market talk". As the self professed "king of market gloom and doom" I am sometimes skeptical of smaller dealers on the street who want me to hear some crap about how they sold a 1501 Date for $2k and expect me to blow it up on my blog and VRF. Maybe they are buried in a few? lol!!
"Real players" lay back in the cut and analyze so I wondered, is this going to be the big market indicator for the season?
I do not know but if yesterday's auction in NYC is any indication of where the market is going, I can only say "WOW"!
There are many ways to get an understanding of how an auction will play out. While sitting at the preview it was clear this was going to be a good one. Lots of people examining watches, pulling them apart, checking serials and casebacks. I was there with my trusty sidekick Viper who loves nothing more than pulling things apart and scrutinizing.
We arrived Thursday morning a bit into the first session, 30 lots in. As I sat down a beaming AQ Chairman Bob Maron walks over tells us the smaller lots in the beginning are doing "extremely well". Nice. Bobby's happy already. That's a good thing.
I was interested in the vintage Rolex, which by all accounts was scarce in this sale on the whole, and big Patek. Lots 93 and 94 go off as expected. Lot 95 then hammers at $7k which IMO is a little strong but not unexpected. Lots 97/98 go the same route. When lot 104 does not hit reserve, I am a little uneasy as it was just so perfect and sold for $100k last year. Then came lot 120, the 5970 Tiff which blew up over $130k+ BC. Lot 140 Breguet clock/watch combo sold for over $500k. By lot 173 the tsunami continued with a nice but ordinary 5513 went for $6k w/buyers commission! Lot 176 Tiffany 1016 was over $6500 w/BC, lot 177 $45k+.
Lot 179 was the killer selling for $84k w/BC. $84k!!!!
Patek lot 216 the "platinum Gilbert Albert" came close to $100k, which really was indicative of most Patek, current or vintage. All sold well which leads me to believe people are looking to plant money somewhere, ANYWHERE, but in the bank and want hard, tangible items with a proven history of value over the long term.
Lot 341 green Milgauss closed at $7200 which is amazing
My personal favorite (lol) lot 343 the Bamford Blackout Daytona closed soft, IMO at around $20k.
Can anyone say PRO-HUNTER???? There is no substitute!
LOL
Lots 350 and 351, 5513 mattes, closed in the mid $4k range, with lot 532 coming close to hitting $50k even with many "non Milsub" issues.
My other personal favorite lot 353 the cream 16550 full set closed over $15k. Lot 354 the 1530 full boat also did very well at $8k.
Lot 356, the orange hand, did not hit reserve which is not surprising as there are alot out there and can be had in the $11k range.
Lot 357 held it's own at $27k+ to round up the Rolex.
The big Patek lots were what really brought home the show:
Lot 401 over $74k, lot 402 clost to $400k but lot 413 and 414 hit the higher of their respective estimates at $780k and $680k+.
I must say, as I watch the market daily I did not see the strong "big Patek" numbers coming. They talk about a lack of money but it is apparent people will sock money into something which has a proven track record. Vintage Rolex is still hanging very strong in the auction world too. One observation I made during the day was there are deals to be had at auction and on the street but the "two tier" market is still in play. If you buy right, you can get top dollar at auction and vice-versa. We see deals on 47th and beyond, but these are serious Patek numbers. Some of the "more common Patek" did almost retail+ in many lots.
Patrizzi and Co are next on October 7th. While they may have not many Rolex in their sale, they are counting on higher quality pieces, as opposed to quantity. I am told by insiders that P & Co have lots coming in droves, but Osvaldo Patrizzi is not accepting anything but prime examples, which is refreshing and necessary.
I am very excited to see what happens on October 7th at Patrizzi & Co. Their sale will either solidify the market as real, or show this AQ auction to be a fluke. I am betting the market is coming back strong, but for the mere fact that cash is worth less and less each day. When inflation hits here and around the world, we can always use a red Subbie to trade for groceries!'
lol
One last comment on yesterday's auction is this: Antiquorum had the "buzz" going...AGAIN! You could feel the electricity in the air when you arrived. Though I had to leave a little early I could tell it was going to be very strong w/sales close to $10 million. Not bad in a slumping Obamamerica, huh?
Again, many congratulations to Bob, Evan and the AQ team for a splendid sale and overall top rate event...
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